One in 14 secondary school-age children had Covid last week, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics.
The substantial increase – up from an estimated one in 20 pupils the previous week – suggests that the spread of Covid through secondary schools is far outpacing the government’s vaccination programme. It follows criticism this week from headteachers and parents about a “haphazard†vaccine rollout that is continuing to disrupt education.
The ONS survey, based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, showed an overall increase in Covid infections in England from one in 85 people to one in 70 in the week ending 2 October. The trend was driven by an apparently huge rise in infections in secondary-age children, with most age ranges showing steady or decreasing rates of positive tests.
Covid cases fell in recent weeks in Scotland and Northern Ireland with an “uncertain†trend in Wales, the ONS survey found.
Prof Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, said the latest results in secondary school-age children were “concerningâ€. “However you look at it, this is a huge increase, and it clearly follows from schools having reopened and, crucially, from vaccination rates of children in that age group still being low,†he said.
The latest data imply that natural infection is spreading through secondary schools faster than pupils are being vaccinated. According to data released by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) on Thursday, fewer than one in 10 (9%) in the age group had been vaccinated by last Sunday just a few weeks away from a half-term target set by the government. More than one-third of those vaccinated so far are children who are clinically vulnerable or living with people who are vulnerable who were prioritised for vaccination earlier in the summer.
Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said: “It’s quite clear that natural infection is well ahead of vaccination in that age group at the moment. It would take a really concerted effort to catch up. The implication is that herd immunity is starting to have a role in that age group through natural infection.â€
“I don’t think that’s a reason to back off the vaccination,†Woolhouse added. “There’s a long-term strategy here as well as a short-term one.â€
Woolhouse said the latest data from UKHSA suggests that the infections in this age group may have peaked, or would peak soon. Trends in ONS data tend to lag behind the figures for new cases as they capture lingering infections as well as new ones.
It also appears that infections in the secondary school-age group have not spilled over significantly into older age groups.
Sarah Crofts, the head of analytical outputs for the ONS Covid-19 infection survey, said: “There is a mixed picture of infection trends across the UK once again, with the largest increase seen in England. This has been largely driven by a notable increase among secondary school pupils, likely reflecting their return to school in September.â€
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the size of the increase in secondary-age children was “quite surprising†and it was unclear why infections seemed to be spreading in secondary schools but not in younger children. According to the ONS, one in 36 primary schoolchildren were infected, and the trend has been fairly flat since September.
