5 things to know about Johor’s state election on Jul 11

WHAT NEXT? 

BN is widely expected to retain Johor. 

Think tank Merdeka Centre projected BN to win between 40 and 42 seats, with its programme director Ibrahim Suffian citing a rebound in Malay support for UMNO, reported Malaysiakini. 

Another analyst, former DAP MP Ong Kian Ming, projected a landslide victory for BN, saying it may win 53 seats. 

According to an analysis by think tank Ilham Centre, BN holds the lead in 39 seats. PH leads in nine while eight others will see close contests. 

It said PH appeared to be overly dependent on Anwar to boost its campaign momentum and the coalition lacked a local face for its campaign. 

The Centre for Malaysian Chinese Studies said PH has a good chance of wresting several marginal seats from BN if there is a 65-per-cent turnout among Chinese voters.

While PH had a slow start to the Johor state election campaign, its support base has stabilised after a week of campaigning, the think tank said, as reported by local media. 

The coalition must galvanise outstationed voters and also woo Malay swing voters who voted for PN in the 2022 state election, it added. Coalitions require 29 seats for a simple majority to form the state government.

After the election, all eyes will be on who will be Johor’s next chief minister, a decision that will be determined by the Johor palace no matter which coalition wins. 

The chief minister will have to balance relationships with the federal government, the royalty and neighbouring Singapore while maintaining investor confidence, analysts have said.

The results of Johor’s state election, as well as Negeri Sembilan’s on Aug 1, will help PH gauge public support, providing a better indication of how the pact and Anwar may fare in the looming national polls to be called by February 2028, observers said.