Time to cash in
The endless horse trading is exactly why a secret ballot is “absolutely only on a benefit” for von der Leyen, said Jacob Moroza-Rasmussen, a former chief at the pan-European liberal ALDE party.
And of course those who have negotiated concessions can only cash them in if von der Leyen stays in office.
In fact, that’s exactly how von der Leyen won her first mandate, Moroza-Rasmussen said at a recent briefing by the consultancy APCO Worldwide, where he’s now a senior director.
The Polish Law and Justice Party (PiS) “didn’t have to go out and say ‘we voted for von der Leyen.’ But it’s a public secret that they were given certain benefits to vote for her to get her over the line last time,” Moroza-Rasmussen said. PiS is a part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group alongside Meloni’s MEPs and has had a toxic relationship with Brussels over rule of law issues.
If you see Parliament committee chairs or other plum positions being given to “surprising” groups or individual members, Moroza-Rasmussen added, “you should probably look out for that being part of the deal.”
No backup plan
The lack of alternatives — and fear of political chaos — helps von der Leyen.
If she comes up short of the magic number of 361, even by a single vote, the European Council has a month to deliberate and come up with another candidate, an outcome that would be unprecedented and could spark a political crisis, especially since there are no other obvious candidates would could pass both the European Council and the European Parliament.
“Good luck getting Plenković or Mitsotakis through that vote,” said another EU official, pointing to the Croatian and Greek prime ministers, whose names were floated as alternatives to von der Leyen ahead of the EU election.
The need for political stability amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, Hungary’s tumultuous presidency of the Council of the EU, and a potential change in American leadership in November helped von der Leyen get the support of EU heads of state and government last month. Now, she and her team are making the same argument with the European Parliament.
The big uncertainty is the large number of new European lawmakers. The current Parliament is more diverse and divided than at any point in the EU’s modern history. With a stronger hard right, it becomes even more important to convince pro-European lawmakers, including ones who have never set foot in Brussels or Strasbourg before.
“Some people will never vote for her because they don’t want the European Union to work,” Barroso, who is also from the EPP, said in an interview last week. But even beyond the “core parties,” he said, “other people, they want the European Union to work.”
He added: “There is not a credible alternative to Ursula von der Leyen.”
Discover more from PressNewsAgency
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.