(Bloomberg) — The dollar fell and US Treasuries rallied as investors walked back bets on Donald Trump winning the presidential election after weekend polls indicated Kamala Harris was gaining ground.
Most Read from Bloomberg
An index of the greenback dropped the most in more than a month, while the Mexican peso — which tumbled in the aftermath of Trump’s 2016 victory — was the top performer among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. US stock futures advanced.
Harris received some encouraging signals from an ABC News and Ipsos poll giving her a 49%-46% edge nationally against Trump in the race for the White House, while the New York Times/Siena survey released Sunday showed the Democratic nominee ahead in five of seven swing states.
A survey by the Des Moines Register that pointed to a lead for Harris in Iowa — a state that Trump has won in both of his previous contests — was a likely outlier, but served to underscore the ever-shifting dynamics of the race. Still, Harris’ advantage across all of the surveys was within the margin of error, and a NBC News poll released Sunday showed the race deadlocked 49%-49%.
The dollar gauge and 10-year Treasury yields both had reached their highest since July in recent weeks, after investors ramped up wagers on a second term for Trump. The argument goes that his support for looser fiscal policy and steep tariffs will deepen the federal deficit and fuel inflation, pushing up interest rates to the detriment of Treasuries but the benefit of the dollar.
“Somehow markets persuaded themselves that Trump was well ahead and had been priced as if it was quite a clear victory for him, which seems crazy,” Erik Nielsen, group chief economics advisor at UniCredit SpA, told Bloomberg TV. “What you’re seeing now is a realization that we got ahead of ourselves.”
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.29%.
Nvidia Corp. rose 2.3% in early trading after an announcement that the chipmaker will replace Intel Corp. in the 128-year-old Dow Jones Industrial Average. Intel dropped 2.3%, while Apple Inc. fell 0.4% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. continued its sale of shares in the iPhone maker.
In addition to the US election, trading across financial markets this week also will be shaped by central bank decisions for the US, UK and Australia, among others.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points Thursday, after the latest jobs data showed US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 while the unemployment rate remained low. Even so, the numbers were distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike.
Economists also expect the Bank of England to lower its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.75%.
Oil, Gold
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, rose 2.5% Monday as OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month and Iran escalated its rhetoric against Israel.
In China, the top legislative body reviewed a proposal to move some local governments’ off-balance-sheet debt onto their official accounts, a highly-anticipated move to ease their financial burden that has been foreshadowed by officials.
Key events this week:
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Monday
US factory orders, Monday
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI, Monday
China’s Standing Committee of National People’s Congress meets through Nov. 8, Monday
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
Cookie
Duration
Description
cookielawinfo-checbox-analytics
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checbox-functional
11 months
The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checbox-others
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy
11 months
The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
