London: The Islamic Republic is being weakened by the hour as missiles degrade its military, wipe out its senior ranks and kill its supreme leader.
The regime claims to have a path towards a new leader. In truth, it is being pulverised by the US and Israeli attacks and will struggle to ensure the next ayatollah can take control in the chaos.
The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has left Iran with a power vacuum, pure and simple. And it is all the greater because so many of its other leaders have been killed, giving confidence to those who hope the entire regime will collapse.
US President Donald Trump claims dozens of leaders have been eliminated. “Nobody can believe the success we’re having, 48 leaders are gone in one shot,” he told Fox News early on Monday (AEDT).
We do not have independent verification of this claim. We do know, however, that the Islamic Republic is under more pressure than at any time since its foundation in 1979. A collapse cannot be ruled out.
Khamenei, who was 86, ruled Iran for 37 years and shaped its policies to export terror and brutally suppress dissent. He became supreme leader in 1989 – the year the Berlin Wall fell and tanks rolled into Tiananmen Square – and was in many ways a remnant of a past era. Nobody who rules that long is easily replaced.
Under the Iranian constitution, the country is supposed to convene the 88 members of an Assembly of Experts to choose his successor – an immense challenge when they are under attack.
On Sunday in Iran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a new supreme leader would be chosen in “one or two” days. This is the same minister who said 24 hours earlier that Khamenei was still alive. For now, the Iranian military is technically leaderless because the supreme leader is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
The damage to Iranian military capacity is severe. Also gone is Ali Shamkhani, 70, the head of Iran’s Defence Council and a key negotiator with the US in their talks on nuclear power. He was seen as a hardliner and provoked ridicule last year when a social media video showed his daughter getting married in a Western-style ceremony in a revealing strapless gown. To the critics of the regime, he proved his hypocrisy.
The strikes have also killed Mohammad Pakpour, 64, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, the ultimate enforcers of the regime. Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, 62, has also been killed. He spoke last year about targeting the US if Iran ever came under threat. “All US bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries,” he said.
It is impossible to be certain about every death in the senior ranks of the Iranian leadership while the strikes continue, but there is no question that the regime is severely degraded. The chief of staff in the Iranian armed forces, Sayyid Abdolrahim Mousavi, 65, appears to have died on Saturday. He led Iran’s ballistic missile attacks.
Israeli forces claim the strikes have also killed the head of the military bureau, Mohammad Shirazi, a close adviser to the supreme leader. They also claim the removal of intelligence chief Saleh Asadi.
The head of the IRGC’s elite Quds unit, Esmail Qaani, has been reported as dead, but there is no confirmation so far. Reports also suggest the casualties include the research and development head of the defence ministry, Hossein Jabal Amelian, and his predecessor, Reza Mozaffari-Nia.
In short, the US and Israel have wrought devastation on the regime. They took advantage of a moment on Saturday when they suspected the Khamenei was meeting senior leaders, and they struck. We now know the timing was dictated by this opportunity to decapitate the government.
Iranian state media said Khamenei was working in his office when he died in Saturday’s missile strikes, according to Reuters. The reports also suggested the attacks killed his daughter, grandchild, daughter-in-law and son-in-law. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was seen as a potential successor, may also be dead.
All of this deepens the chaos in this war when Iranian military units are lashing out at targets across the region, ranging from military bases to hotels and airports. After seeing the missile strikes on their own country, Iranian military officers appear to be firing wildly at whatever is in range.
President Masoud Pezeshkian is vowing revenge. “Our brave soldiers and the great nation of Iran will teach an unforgettable lesson to the international oppressors. They will regret this day,” he said in a recorded video message broadcast across Iran late on Sunday.
Pezeshkian is said to be working with an interim committee of three men to choose the next leader: himself, judicial head Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, one of the 12 most senior clerics in the country and therefore a potential supreme leader.
Another survivor, so far, is Ali Larijani, a skilled politician who has also been part of the nuclear negotiations. He was made the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council last August and has made several trips to Moscow, highlighting the military pact with Russia.
Every remaining leader is a target. The strikes that killed Khamenei proved that US and Israeli agencies are capable of tracking individuals at the very top of the government.
Unless, of course, the US and Israel choose to spare Pezeshkian in the calculation that he will negotiate a truce.
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David Crowe is Europe correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X or email.From our partners
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