Commentary: Iran war has shattered the Gulf’s image as an oasis

Remarkably, an oft-underreported element was also dragged into the fray. In September last year, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. 

Most paid scant attention to the pact, even though it paired the Saudis with a nuclear-armed state in what was seen as a binding security arrangement. Indeed, when asked if Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities would be extended to Saudi Arabia, Islamabad’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said they would, though he later backtracked. 

The question of a mutual defence treaty came up again this week, when Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said he warned Iran against attacking Saudi Arabia. Referencing the pact, Mr Dar said it helped keep missile or drone attacks against the kingdom “to a minimum”.

WARY OF IRAN AND ISRAEL

The net result of all this is that Iran’s actions have restored it as the GCC’s most immediate, and serious, rival. The anger from the Gulf states over Tehran’s choice of targets is palpable, and have left rapprochement in ruins. 

Whether there will ever be a level of trust that allows them to restart attempts to find an accommodation with their neighbour across the waterway – or if there will even be an incentive to do so – remains an open question.

That leaves the Gulf nations in a decidedly disadvantageous position: wary of both their neighbour to the east, and the one to the west, Israel. 

Ever since the Oct 7, 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks, Israel has adopted an increasingly muscular disposition, attacking its enemies at will, no matter the reputational cost. This was most vividly displayed by its strike on Qatar – a country with which it shares useful working channels, despite the absence of diplomatic ties – in September last year. 

This has made other Middle Eastern countries nervous. Into this already choppy harbour now sails Iran, towing more instability in its wake.

Carl Skadian, a former journalist and editor for 30 years, is deputy director at the Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore.