Updated ,first published
Labor has recorded a commanding election victory in South Australia in the face of a significant One Nation surge eating into the incumbent government’s primary vote, with the Liberals also to be relegated to just a handful of seats.
Premier Peter Malinauskas will secure a second term in a clear landslide after just two hours of counting on Saturday evening, buoyed by strong polling and a fragmented opposition.
Queensland senator Pauline Hanson’s right-wing populist party was destroying much of the Liberal Party’s traditional vote in regional areas, with strong support for One Nation in working-class areas in Labor heartland, in a national threat to the major parties from the rise of grievance politics.
Labor had a swing of nearly 4 per cent on early primary votes, with 35 per cent of the vote, while One Nation had spiked to a nearly 24 per cent primary vote. The Liberals were languishing at 19 per cent at 8.30pm AEST.
Complex preference flows are expected to ensure counts in several tight seats will last for several days, with more than 35 per cent of South Australians also casting their vote in the days prior to the election.
The election’s closing act was dominated by the dramatic dumping of One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter over allegations he is wanted by the authorities in the United Kingdom.
The controversy erupted on Friday after it emerged Baxter – also known as Trent Baxter – had allegedly failed to attend court on a sexual touching charge. A representative from the crime division of His Majesty’s Courts and Tribunals Service confirmed to the ABC that Baxter had “a warrant for arrest without bail [for] not attending the court” in the UK.
Within hours, One Nation moved to disendorse Baxter – who was running for the seat of Adelaide – and conceded the issue had not been disclosed during candidate vetting.
“Mr Baxter is no longer a One Nation candidate as a result of this news,” the party said in a statement.
South Australian One Nation leader Cory Bernardi said the development was a shock at the worst possible time.
“We also expect the integrity and honesty of our candidates. In this case, he wasn’t forthcoming,” he told The Advertiser.
Baxter declined to speak to Nine News when approached to discuss the substance of the allegations.
“I believe in innocent until proven guilty, that’s all I’m going to say at the moment. I will be putting out a full statement,” he said.
The ABC was barred from One Nation’s post-election function in Adelaide, reportedly because of its reporting on Baxter.
For Malinauskas, the episode reinforced long-held criticisms of the party, even as he sought to keep Labor focused on its campaign message. Labor has long dominated South Australian politics, winning five of the past six state elections and governing for 20 of the past 24 years.
“I’m not at all surprised,” he said of One Nation. “This is a political party with a track record of anywhere it goes – dysfunction reigning supreme. Rarely do we see people sticking with One Nation – they tend to leave, quit, change parties – that’s certainly been the history in South Australia.”
The scandal landed at a critical moment for One Nation, which had emerged as the campaign’s most disruptive force. Opinion polls had placed the party on between 22 and 28 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of the Liberals on 14 to 20 per cent, in a dramatic reshaping of the state’s political landscape.
Labor – which held 29 of 47 seats in the state’s lower house going into the election – was polling strongly throughout suburban Adelaide, likely winning seats off the Liberals, while One Nation was also tipped to be polling strongly in the city’s north where Labor’s safest seats lie. Thirty-three of the state’s seats are in the metropolitan area.
Despite the late setback, federal leader Pauline Hanson insisted the party’s grassroots momentum remained strong, with the party a strong chance in several lower house seats – including Narungga, Hammond, Flinders and Ngadjuri – and to potentially claim two upper house seats.
Speaking to media, Hanson said while she was unsure what or how many seats One Nation may win, she believes the election would be “a new start for South Australia”.
“I think that’s what people want,” she told reporters. “People keep saying to us ‘you’re our last hope’.”
The Liberals, led by Ashton Hurn, have struggled to cut through. The party has grappled with a collapsing primary vote and competition from One Nation for conservative support. It has endured several scandals, including a cocaine scandal surrounding former leader David Speirs, who quit parliament after a leaked video was published by The Advertiser showing him snorting white powder off a plate. Speirs pleaded guilty to two counts of supplying drugs last year.
Former foreign minister Alexander Downer told Sky News Australia the behaviour of former Liberal members combined with leadership instability had been “fatal” for the party’s chances, labelling their performance in opposition as “disgraceful”.
“I am completely unforgiving of those people, they have humiliated the Liberal Party, and then over and above that there has been factional brawling like I’ve never seen before,” he said.
“You can’t expect punters to vote for you if you’ve behaved as a political party like that. This is the party of Playford, of Menzies, of Howard, of Fraser, these great Liberal leaders. And they’ve been behaving like that. It’s just disgraceful.”
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Rob Harris is the national correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age based in Canberra. He is a former Europe correspondent.Connect via email.From our partners
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