On Iran, Trump executes his most spectacular U-turn yet

WASHINGTON: International markets and the world at large have grown used to US President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversals, but Monday’s (Mar 23) about-face on Iran was one of his most spectacular yet.

Since returning to power last year, Trump has openly embraced governing “by instinct”.

On the Mideast conflict, he has made a flurry of contradictory statements about goals and the timeline, and even declared on Mar 13 that the war would end when he “felt it in his bones”.

“Trump has been a master of sudden pivots and switches. So it’s sometimes hard to know if there is a strategy or if it’s just always improvisation,” said Garret Martin, a professor of international relations at American University in Washington.

These reversals typically follow a pattern. The Republican president issues commercial, diplomatic or military threats – often accompanied by ultimatums – that stun the international community.

Then he abruptly reverses course. He claims to have secured decisive concessions that he rarely divulges and promises a resolution to the crisis, causing markets to swing dramatically.

On Monday, oil prices plunged and stocks surged after Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that the United States had held talks with Iran about ending the conflict. North Sea Brent crude plummeted by more than 14 per cent while its American equivalent, West Texas Intermediate, lost nearly 10 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, jumped 700 points.

TACO

As recently as Saturday, Trump had given Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – a vital passage for oil shipments out of the Gulf – under threat of massive strikes against the country’s power plants. He did not mention dialogue.

But then on Monday, he declared a new deadline – five days this time – to allow time for the talks to continue.

He spoke of “very productive” discussions with “highly respected” and “very solid” Iranian officials, without identifying them.

But Iranian officials denied that any negotiations were taking place, which partially dampened market enthusiasm.