Trump’s open-ended ceasefire buys time but lacks clear path forward, say analysts

SHIFT IN STRATEGY

That uncertainty raises questions about whether such tactics can sway Tehran’s position, especially given Iran’s track record of withstanding sanctions.

Past sanctions have often hurt ordinary Iranians more than the leadership, Slavin pointed out.

Now, Trump faces the difficult task of avoiding escalation while not appearing weak.

“He underestimated the strength of the Iranian regime,” stressed Slavin.

“He was convinced by (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu that eliminating the top leadership would either cause real regime change – not what we’ve seen – or would weaken the government so much that it would sue for peace and make enormous concessions.”

Instead, Iran was prepared for the attacks and has responded in ways that have placed significant strain on the global economy and regional stability.

“So he has been misled, made the wrong assumptions, or he didn’t listen to proper advice. He certainly has not thought this through, and now he’s scrambling because he doesn’t want a full-scale war,” said Slavin.

“But he doesn’t want to look like he’s lost. The Iranians are not going to make this easy for him.”

She also pushed back against Trump’s characterisation of Iran’s leadership as “seriously fractured”.

“There are obviously different tendencies – some are more hardline – but it is a leadership that is unified in defying the United States, in trying to make sure that if there is any agreement, it’s favourable to Iran,” she noted.

There are some indications of Iran’s demands, including its insistence on the “right to enrich uranium on their own soil” even if it is willing to pause those activities temporarily, she said.

Tehran is also looking for sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and assurances against future attacks by the US and Israel.