UK risks ‘civil unrest’ within 10 years if vital system collapses

The UK risks civil unrest because of food shortages within the next decade, experts have warned. Biodiversity loss, climate shocks and geopolitical conflicts are fracturing the world food system, a report led by Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA).

Chronic pressures facing the complex global network are putting the world economy, society as a whole and even human survival at risk. Their report cites a 2023 study, which suggested civil unrest in the UK, caused by a food system crisis, could be possible within the next 10-50 years. Aled Jones, lead author and director of the Global Sustainability Institute at ARU, said: “Our current economy is set up to deliver efficiency, profit and thereby a just-in-time system that both drives this threat and provides little to no resilience against it.

“We need radical new policy and direction to tackle these emerging risks.”

The researchers warned that soil degradation and water scarcity have already led to lower crop yields, higher prices and reduced availability in recent years.

These are now being compounded by geopolitical volatility, with the US-Israeli war on Iran further exposing the fragility of food security as supply chain disruptions continue to drive up costs, they said.

For the UK, recent years have seen farmers lose billions to droughts and floods, and households have been hit with soaring food price inflation.

Currently, financial risks around food systems, zoonotic diseases – those transferred from animals to humans – heat or pollution-related health crises, and even cyber attacks on retailers are “not being managed well,” he said.

Hugh Montgomery, chairman of intensive care medicine at University College London, said the world is “certain to get these impacts unless we take absolutely radical action now”.

But on the health risks, Mr Montgomery said: “The health impacts are really not ones that worry me.

“I’m worried about human survival now, and when I talk about human survival, I don’t mean about future generations,” he added.

He also argued that humanity is currently driving a “mass extinction event” while the impact on society and the economy will be “completely catastrophic” leading to mass migration, conflicts and nature collapse.

The researchers say governments, regulators and the financial sector must act urgently to integrate nature into decision-making to safeguard the world’s food systems.

It comes after a recent government report, put together by the intelligence officials, found biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse are a realistic possibility that could trigger a global competition for food, mass migration to the UK and nuclear war in Asia.

A Government spokesman said: “The UK has a resilient food system. Our land use framework gives long-term clarity to strengthen our high degree of food security and national resilience to extreme weather.

“This Government is also investing billions in the development of new technology to increase yields, develop climate-resilient crops as part of our commitment to maintain food production levels and help farmers produce more food.

“Alongside this, we are increasing our water supply by building new reservoirs for the first time in 30 years, ensuring our food and water security is safeguarded for the future.”