‘Godzilla El Nino’: Southeast Asia warned of punishing climate whiplash

The threat is also landing at a fragile moment for emerging economies, analysts add, as geopolitical tensions, higher energy costs and pressure on remittances leave governments and households with less room to absorb climate shocks.

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were already rising rapidly in late April, signalling the expected return of El Nino next month, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The weather phenomenon typically brings hotter and drier conditions to Southeast Asia, damaging agriculture, straining water supplies and amplifying the risk of forest fires.

But experts said the same heat could also make sudden bursts of rainfall more dangerous, increasing the risk of localised flooding even during a broadly dry spell.

“Things get a lot hotter, nevertheless – and this is something that is kind of a little counterintuitive – but it can also mean that localised flooding increases,” said Andy Smith, chief operating officer of Fathom, a firm that uses scientific tools and intelligence to understand the climate’s impact on water risk.