If the next election is solely decided by voters who want a party led by someone with strong views who has vowed tough action on immigration, then it is Pauline Hanson’s to lose.
A breakdown of personality and policy questions in the most recent Resolve Political Monitor shows Hanson and One Nation easily heading Anthony Albanese’s government and Angus Taylor’s Coalition on both counts.
But elections – the next is not due until the first half of 2028 – are rarely fought on single issues (or single personality traits), with voters apt to choose their preferred representative on a range of factors.
Those factors can include self-inflicted problems, such as being spotted on the pool deck of a Sicilian hotel where rooms cost up to $2788 a night while bemoaning the cost of living pressures facing Australian farmers.
That support is being driven by several factors, principally particular policies and some personal traits.
In terms of policy, One Nation dominates the Coalition and Labor on one issue – immigration and refugees.
Of the people polled by Resolve, 35 per cent said Hanson’s party offered the better policy performance, with Labor a distant second at 24 per cent.
The Coalition isn’t even in the picture at just 19 per cent. Clearly, voters aren’t convinced that Angus Taylor can offer anything better than Pauline Hanson when it comes to immigration.
Hanson’s party also outperforms her major opponents on one other issue – crime and antisocial behaviour. The gap between the three is narrow at just three points, but the bigger problem is that the federal government has little control over an issue that is largely in the hands of state government.
That One Nation is doing better than the major parties on any of the 18 issues tracked by Resolve points to the interest voters have in Hanson.
And One Nation is second behind Labor (and ahead of the Coalition) across a range of other issues, including how to deal with the housing crisis, healthcare and aged care, jobs and wages and welfare.
It’s not as if One Nation has so far released a huge policy agenda. Yet voters have so little interest in the Coalition’s offerings, and seem so turned off by Labor’s, they are prepared to give One Nation the benefit of the doubt.
But just winning one or two policy fights does not an election victory make.
That’s reflected in a separate question put to Resolve’s 2252 respondents.
Sixty-nine per cent of those surveyed agreed that immigration was an important issue. It ranked around the same level as foreign affairs and trade (68 per cent) and the environment (66 per cent).
But it was well behind a host of other, vote-changing concerns. Keeping the cost of living low was rated highest at 92 per cent, with healthcare and aged care not far behind at 88 per cent. Other policy areas of importance included jobs and wages (86 per cent), managing the nation’s finances (85 per cent), education (81 per cent), national security (79 per cent) and housing (84 per cent).
On almost every one of these more important issues, One Nation is behind Labor and the Coalition.
But the personality of a leader is also a key consideration.
Here, Hanson is shaded by Taylor on issues from honesty to competency to positivity.
But in a warning to the major parties, One Nation supporters believe in Hanson far more than Labor voters back in Anthony Albanese or Coalition admirers idolise Angus Taylor.
For instance, asked if Hanson has strong views or if people don’t know what she stands for, a net 30 per cent said the One Nation leader’s convictions were well known. Among One Nation supporters, that climbed to a net 78 per cent.
By contrast, Taylor had a net 20 per cent rating on strong views across all voters and a net 47 among Coalition supporters. Albanese was just net 1 across the entire survey, but a net 53 with Labor voters.
Of course, having strong views does not guarantee electoral success. Voters can understand a candidate has a deeply held opinion, yet violently disagree with that view.
But across 12 of 13 personal measures, Hanson did far better among One Nation voters than Albanese or Taylor did among their own backers.
All of this could be undone, especially with such a long time until the next election. A surge in support can dissipate just as quickly as it emerges.
Spending a fortnight talking to far-right influencers in Britain, with a quick stop for a White Lotus highlights tour, may be waved off by dyed-in-the-wool supporters, but those more recently enamoured by Hanson’s plain talking may find it difficult to accept.
Remember: despite the strong polling results, on a two-party preferred basis Hanson has yet to edge Albanese. It’s a little early to be printing “PM Pauline 2028” just yet.
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Shane Wright is a senior economics correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X or email.From our partners
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