The American people’s verdict is clear. They have not just gone cold on Donald Trump and his Republican Party – they have defenestrated them, from sea to shining sea.
While everyone expected Democrats to win the House of Representatives, it was a much bigger task to take control of the Senate, requiring victories in parts of the country where Democratic hopes have been dashed before.
Not this time. They say things are bigger in Texas, and nowhere was the “blue wave” bigger than in James Talarico’s win over Republican Ken Paxton in the Lone Star State – which is looking more and more purple (swing).
There’s Kansas, a state which had not sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years, but has now elected pastor Adam Hamilton. The verdict was emphatic in the cornfields of Iowa, too, where Josh Turek flipped the seat.
South Carolina – a state that was barely on the radar in terms of possible Democratic victories – went blue early. In Maine, Republican senator Susan Collins’ 30-year career was ended by a Democrat who had been campaigning for only 100 days after his predecessor was forced to quit.
Call it a blue wave, a blue tsunami or a “a volcanic eruption of blue Crayola”, as one commentator did, it stands as a seismic event in American political history.
And if it’s a massive win for the Democrats, it is a massive defeat for the Republicans – one which will subject Trump and his party to investigations and possibly impeachment proceedings in Congress. While Democrats differ on whether to go after the president, many are set on targeting Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth – with some Republicans keen to join.
If Trump was humbled by the electoral rout, he didn’t really show it. He spent much of the evening raging on social media about the coverage on Fox News, including his hatred of Jessica Tarlov, one of the network’s few progressive anchors, and the appearance of former New York mayor Bill de Blasio.
That didn’t stop him dialling into Fox News for a long chat after the extent of the carnage became clear. “I’m a little bit surprised. I thought they’d do better, actually,” he said of the Republicans.
Trump is living in a bubble. His fellow Republicans must surely now burst it.
Trump blamed the candidates. They “just didn’t inspire people to get out and vote”, he said. “And I wasn’t on the ballot.”
The president then plugged the splendour of his campaign rallies, where he instructed his loyal supporters to pretend he was on the ballot. “You never saw rallies that big,” he told Fox. “These were the biggest rallies ever. Nobody’s ever seen anything like it.”
Listening to Trump deflect, it became clear he was completely delusional about what just took place. Moreover, he was mistaking his “MAGA” faithful for the entire electorate. It is something he has done for some time.
At his recent election rallies, he would show the crowd videos of a CNN poll that found 98 per cent of “MAGA Republicans” approved of Trump, as if that proved something about America writ large.
The reality is the MAGA faithful crowd has been shrinking – including the numbers willing to show up to a Trump rally. But from behind the podium, soaking up the attention, it appears the president cannot see that.
Trump is living in a bubble. His fellow Republicans must surely now burst it. They must take back control.
That is why the size of these elections’ blue wave could be a blessing in disguise for Republicans, allowing them to hasten the break from Trump and reduce his influence over their future.
It does not necessarily render Trump a complete lame duck. He still enjoys control of foreign policy and the military, and he has proven himself willing and able to wield enormous executive power without Congress.
Nor does it mean that Trumpism, or populism, is dead. Americans just aren’t convinced that Republicans who gave them the Iran war and higher petrol prices are the ones to deliver it. Democrats won on broadly populist messaging.
The shellacking makes it more likely that Republicans will speak out about Trump – “to say publicly what they have only said privately”, as Republican strategist Doug Heye put it.
For some people close to the president – like Vice President JD Vance, who wants the 2028 presidential nomination – it is imperative to start differentiating themselves.
Speaking at an Axios election event in Washington on Tuesday night (US time), former Republican congressman Charlie Dent said the results looked worse than the 2006 landslide during George W. Bush’s second term.
“The conventional wisdom is JD Vance is the guy,” he said. “I got news for you. If the president’s approval rating is in the 30s, and JD Vance is so tied to the president – as he is – then how do you separate yourself? How do you run for Donald Trump’s third term?
“It’s going to be a change year, so I think that the Republican nominee is probably going to have to be somebody who has some distance from the president.”
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Michael Koziol is the North America correspondent for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald. He is a former Sydney editor, Sun-Herald deputy editor and a federal political reporter in Canberra.Connect via X or email.From our partners
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