How excess rains in March could affect India’s wheat crop

The 2021-22 season was marked by too much rain. The country received rainfall that was well above the long-term “normal” average in every month from September 2021 to January 2022. This was followed by the the hottest month of march in terms of mean maximum temperatures.

The unusual heat of March 2022 led to lower wheat production, as the rise in temperatures occurred during the grain formation and filling stage, when grains accumulated starch and protein. This stage, which determines the size and weight of the harvested grains, was cut short with maximum temperatures that crossed 35 degrees Celsius in mid-March.

While the Ministry of Agriculture claimed last year’s wheat production was 107.74 million tonnes (mt), a marginal 1.7% decline from the 2020-21 record high of 109.59 mt, the private trade estimated that the harvest was 10-15% lower. at 93-98 meters

This was confirmed by the drop in purchases by the government itself to 18.79 mt, compared to 43.34 mt in the previous marketing season, and wholesale wheat inflation crossing 20% ​​yoy in December, even after the export ban.

Why has 2022-23 been different?

If 2021-22 was mostly wet, with five consecutive months of excess/excess rainfall, 2022-23 was the opposite. The winter was exceptionally dry, with the four months from November 2022 to February 2023 recording poor rainfall (see graph). February 2023 not only recorded 68.3% below normal rainfall, but was also the hottest february ever in terms of the average maximum temperature, the same as March 2022.

If 2021-22 was mostly wet, with five consecutive months of excess/excess rainfall, 2022-23 was the opposite. (IMD data)

Given how hot and dry February was, it was not uncommon to expect a repeat, if not exceed, March 2022. In fact, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast on February 28 that maximum and minimum temperatures for March by 2023 they will be “above normal” in most of the country. Your monthly outlook for March also predicted average precipitation over the county will be normal, and “below normal” in most areas of north-west and west-central India, and some parts of east and north-east India.

But March turned out to be neither warm nor dry. Last year, the maximum temperature in Delhi it reached 35 degrees on March 15, 38 degrees on March 20, and 40 degrees on March 30. This year, the maximum was 34 degrees on March 12 and 15, and the maximum on March 31 was 26 degrees. Contrary to initial fears, temperatures remained within the 35 degree limit that is most conducive to grain filling in wheat.

However, the element of surprise was the rain: a surplus of 25.8% in March 2023. But while the first half of March (1-15) registered 77.6% deficient rain, the second half (16 -31) registered a surplus of 120.5%. The so-called “ides of March”, seen in the heat wave that forced the premature ripening and drying of the wheat crop last year, manifested itself in the form of unseasonable rains this year.

Will the rain affect wheat yields?

Wheat is sensitive to both heat stress and rain/thunderstorms during the terminal period of grain filling and maturation. This is the time when the ears of the harvest are laden with grain. The greater the weight accumulated by the grain fill, the more vulnerable the crop is to rain. These, when accompanied by high speed winds, make the stems prone to “snapping” or bending and even falling to the ground.

A farmer surveys the damage done to his wheat crop after heavy rain accompanied by a thunderstorm at Village Ramgarh near Dhkala road in Patiala on Saturday. (Express photo by Harmeet Sodhi)

“In previous years, we only had occasional rains in March. This time, it rained heavily not once, but at least three times: on March 18, March 24, and March 30 and 31. The crop crushed by the first rain did not have a chance to revive,” said Gurmail Singh, a 30-acre farmer from Gehlan village in Punjab’s Sangrur district.

In 2021, Gurmail Singh harvested an average wheat yield of 24 to 25 quintals per acre. That dropped to 16-18 quintals in 2022 due to unusual heat. “I don’t know what it will be this time,” he said. The Gurmail crop has been 100% housed on 10 acres and 40-45% housed on another 8 acres.

Pargat Singh, who farms 22 acres in Bathinda district’s Gehri Baghi village and runs a YouTube crop information channel with 432,000 subscribers, said yield losses were likely to be higher in areas that experienced flooding and hail.

“Water will not drain easily in districts like Fazilka, Firozpur, Muktsar and Bathinda which have low-lying areas with groundwater tables as low as 3-4 metres. Wet beans from even fully mature crops here can suffer discoloration and dullness, with poor grind quality.”

Rajbir Yadav, senior scientist at the New Delhi-based Institute of Agricultural Research of India, said the loss of wheat production this time may be more during harvest than due to lodging or reduced crop yields per se. . “When the crop gets wet and then dries in the sun, the spikes (which carry the grains) become brittle and tend to detach from the stem. Harvesting machines may not pick up these eared heads,” Yadav said.

He noted that wheat lodging has mainly taken place after March 22, by which time grain fill was almost complete for the crop planted before mid-November in much of Punjab and Haryana.

While wheat in Madhya Pradesh was ready for harvest in mid-March, the December-sown crop in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar may even benefit from ongoing rains which have lowered temperatures and extended grain-fill time. .

“I don’t expect the overall performance loss to be anywhere near last year. There would be more to the crop than the actual loss of crop yield,” Yadav said. the indian express.

Would wheat prices rise if production falls?

Unlikely, because wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade futures exchange are now at just over $254 per tonne compared to peaks of more than $500 that were scaled last March.

Last year’s poor domestic harvest came at a time when world commodity prices were skyrocketing after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the world has overcome the effects of war. Even in the unlikely possibility that India’s wheat production falls to the 2021-22 level or below, a resurgence of grain inflation seems unlikely.