Heavy Rain And Hail: How North India Is ‘Playing It Easy’ Even In May?

It doesn’t feel anything like May. Just as northern India was gearing up for one of the hottest months of the year, it was greeted with widespread rain and hail. Delhi registered his coldest night in may in almost 40 years, with the minimum temperature dropping to 15.8℃ on Wednesday night.

The last thing to happen was on the night of May 2, 1982, when the mercury plummeted to 15.2℃, the lowest level ever recorded for the month. It is not just the national capital, but the entire North West of India known for its scorching summer It has been enveloped in surprisingly cool weather. White clouds float lazily in the blue sky, and daytime temperatures stay below 37℃, 3-7℃ below normal for this time of year.

“It’s not entirely unusual, but it’s not very common either. Such climate changes occur once every many years. There was an active western midlatitude weather system, which was very intense and its impact was seen on the plains. The continuous rains have significantly reduced the mercury,” Rajendra Kumar, chief scientist at the India Meteorological Department, told News18.

The weather observatory at Delhi Ridge recorded the lowest minimum temperature on the plains at 14.2 ℃ on Wednesday.

WHAT LEADS TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE?

An intense western disturbance hit the Himalayan region around April 26. These are the rain systems that originate from the Mediterranean Sea and travel east to bring rain/snow over India. Such was the strength of the system that it not only brought torrential rains to the mountainous areas but also to the plains for almost a week.

Delhi’s Pitampura observatory recorded about 53mm of rain in the past four days, including 32.8mm of rain on Wednesday.

THE CHILD EFFECT?

According to some scientists, such anomalous weather can be expected during El Niño years, when the equatorial Pacific Ocean warms up more than normal.

“The El Niño year generally brings a large natural variability in pre-monsoon rainfall during April and May. WDs tend to go deep and impact much of the plains, which we just witnessed. This year, we have had many disturbances, and most of them have been intense,” says Dr M Rajeevan, former Secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES). “But these are variations from year to year. We should worry if we see a long-term trend.”

The cool weather has provided some much-needed relief from the scorching heat, and IMD has ruled out any possibility of heat waves for at least the next five days. Quite a contrast to 2022, when northern India bore the brunt of the hottest summer in 100 years.

CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS?

There is certainly a sense of relief, but scientists are studying these sudden changes in climate for an underlying impact of changing weather patterns. There does not seem to be a clear long-term trend, but there are interannual variations.

The weather disturbances that normally affect the northern region during the period from January to March are now quite active even during April and May, when their activity usually subsides.

“There have been continuous periods of rain. Before it was not so intense; Except for 2021 and 2023, precipitation has been normal or below normal in April in Himachal Pradesh for the last 20 years. This year, it was in excess and it continues even now,” says Surender Paul, a senior scientist at IMD Shimla.

If the latest forecast is to be believed, the weather will likely remain pleasant for a few more days, before “summer” conditions finally return, but with no heat waves for at least the next five days.

The rain has reduced significantly in the region, but it is likely to pick up again Friday night onwards. A new western disturbance could affect the Himalayan region on Friday night and bring fairly widespread rain/snowfall over the mountainous states.

Northwestern states like Punjab, Haryana and Delhi could also see scattered showers with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds on May 6-7. There is also the possibility of hailstorms this Sunday in some places.

High temperatures would then rise and become near normal across the country on May 7, except off the coast of Odisha and the coast of West Bengal, where they are likely to be 2-4°C above normal for the May 8, said IMD.

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