Southeast Asia is set to see a warmer-than-usual early summer, potentially raising power demand for fuel and straining grids at a time when the Middle East conflict has tightened energy supplies in the region.
Across most of maritime and mainland Southeast Asia, home to more than half a billion people, temperatures will be above average for the March-April-May period, according to the latest seasonal outlook published by the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) on Friday.
The forecast comes as the US-Israeli war against Iran upends transport and output across the Middle East, sending energy prices soaring. A prolonged disruption would threaten fossil-fuel reliant Southeast Asia’s power generation into April and May, when the mercury can climb to sweltering levels.
There is an 80 to 100 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures across Indonesia and Malaysia, according to ASMC’s projection for the three-month period. The unseasonal heat is likely to first set in over those two countries, and then is expected to expand to much of mainland Southeast Asia in the following two months. Swathes of Thailand and northern Vietnam are also set to bake in the heat, the centre said.
Only small pockets of the region, including southeastern Vietnam, Cambodia and parts of the Philippines, are forecast to see near-normal temperatures.
Gas importers in some parts of the bloc are already dipping into the spot market for liquefied natural gas cargoes (LNG) after major supplier Qatar halted its largest export facility last week due to the war.
Vietnam and Thailand are seeking March and April shipments, while Thailand has tweaked its LNG procurement plan to add three spot cargoes in those months. Singapore, which got more than 40 per cent of its LNG from Qatar last year, may see power prices spike in the second quarter, according to the country’s Energy Market Authority.
Asian spot prices doubled last week and remain elevated, and buyers in Southeast Asia will be competing with others in Asia and Europe for a limited amount of gas.
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