On Thursday, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele was ousted in a motion of no confidence, punting him into caretaker mode before a new leader can be voted in next week.
Manele’s deposition came after weeks of tumult, with 12 of his coalition MPs abandoning him. Though he worked to delay the return of parliament and his inevitable removal, Manele was forced to convene a session on Thursday after the Solomon Islands High Court intervened.
The Australian government will be monitoring developments closely. In the past, Solomon Islands’ political transitions have been accompanied by protest and even violence. Rioting in response to the China policy of the former Solomon Islands government saw the Morrison government deploy peacekeepers in 2021. So far, the situation in Honiara is calm.
Jeremiah Manele’s style was measured compared to his controversial predecessor, Manasseh Sogavare.
Appointed in 2024, his demeanour took international attention off Honiara. But his administration has been largely a continuation of the Sogavare era, retaining key policy priorities like the deepening of ties with Beijing. Manele also made little impact on the deep economic malaise the country feels mired in, which is now expected to worsen as the fuel shock bites.
Guessing who the victor of the Byzantine backroom dealing that decides the fate of Solomon Islands’ government is a fool’s errand: “No one makes money betting on Melanesian politics”, says Tess Newton Cain, a career-long observer of Pacific affairs.
But there are a handful of leading contenders.
Matthew Wale, who has served as opposition leader for the last seven years, is one. After manoeuvring Manele from office, he spoke with all the confidence of an incoming prime minister-elect. “Our government will be much more embracing of government, an inclusive one, a government that responds to many of the issues being [being felt by] families and households”, he told assembled media after the vote, before further promising to run a government that dismantles “the shackles of elite capture”.
The current foreign minister, Peter Shanel, is a contender; so too is Frederick Kologeto, Manele’s turncoat former deputy. It is unlikely, but not inconceivable, that Manasseh Sogavare, still in parliament, could return as PM for a fifth time.
Irrespective of who takes office, Honiara’s China policy, which it continues to deftly leverage to extract aid and development concessions from Australia and other partners, will likely continue: it is a new normal.
And while Honiara’s foreign policy has been highly publicised in recent years, Manele’s ouster was driven solely by internal dynamics. Disgruntlement had been building within his coalition. High-profile stories of major companies, including the owners of the Gold Ridge Mine, receiving tax exemptions had angered Solomon Islanders and MPs.
Underneath these frustrations sits a deep economic malaise, fuelling resentment among a population that derives little hope from its political leadership.
In February, I returned to Honiara. The cost-of-living pressures on everyday people were evident. This will be exacerbated by the fuel shock caused by the Iran war.
Solomon Islands is among the most diesel-dependent countries. The Honiara grid runs mostly off diesel generators; so too does just about every village with power. In the coming weeks, Solomon Islanders will literally be struggling to turn on the lights, furthering the anger they feel towards the political class in Honiara, whoever takes over.
The result of next week’s ballot won’t fundamentally change Australia’s policy approach in the Solomons. But the determinants of the instability in the Solomon Islands – acute economic hardship and endemic corruption – should concern the Albanese government.
Australia is by far the largest financial supporter of the Solomons: what is needed isn’t more money. But the Australian government should be considering ways to leverage its already expansive spend towards much more granular improvements in Solomon Islanders’ lives, especially in rural areas. To do so requires more risk taking, and working intimately with communities themselves to help address local problems.
An urgent effort to help inoculate the country from the growing oil crisis should be prioritised by Canberra. This might include expediting existing commitments to deliver cheap, clean energy at the village scale, as well as helping the country maintain supplies of diesel and petrol.
It is too soon to consider if Manele’s ouster signifies a return to the political instability that characterised Solomon Islands in the 1990s and early 2000s, but it’s clear that the determinants of such instability remain firmly in place.
Ed Cavanough is the chief executive of the McKell Institute.
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