The University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball recently moved seven traditional Republican strongholds — Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina and Utah — into the slate of potentially competitive presidential races. Last week, Cook moved Florida, traditionally the country’s largest battleground prize, from a tossup to favoring Mr. Biden.
OK, I’d be remiss if I left out the very obvious caveat to all this forecasting. Of course, the election is far from over. And of course, the dynamics could change. (In The Atlantic, Peter Nicholas does a good job at laying out some of the factors that could cut in Mr. Trump’s favor. The problems with voting are certainly worth watching.)
It does not, however, seem as if Mr. Trump’s advisers have some grand plan to shift the current trajectory. In this moment of peril, his campaign is turning to a rationale long invoked by anxious Democrats: But 2016!
In a briefing with reporters on Friday, Mr. Trump’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, argued that much of the polling data was flawed, displaying slide after slide of surveys from four years ago predicting Hillary Clinton would win.
“These trends are going to go unnoticed until election night, when we’re right and they’re wrong,†Mr. Stepien said.
Other Republicans believe they can still turn the race around. They’re cheered by the president’s more sober tone last week and the decision to cancel the Republican National Convention in Florida, an event that would have certainly led to weeks of negative media coverage and possibly another wave of infections in one of the states hit hardest by the pandemic.
“There’s a long way to go. Trump’s numbers are obviously down, but they are going to come back,†said Scott Reed, the chief strategist for the United States Chamber of Commerce and a longtime G.O.P. strategist. “This will be a tight race at the end of the day.â€
