Another Russian mercenary group shows discontent with the Kremlin: ‘A sign that there will be more’

“robotino he has been released,” Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced on August 28.

Although the small village, which before the war had a population of fewer than 500, may be of little importance in itself, it lies along a strategic highway leading to the Russian-occupied rail and road center of Tokmak. . From there, another highway leads to the key city of Melitopol, which, before Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, was known to Ukrainians as the “gateway” to the peninsula. Therefore, last week’s victory was an important breakthrough for Ukraine.

Just days earlier, however, fighters from Rusich, a small Russian neo-Nazi paramilitary group stationed on the Robotyne front line, had threatened to lay down their arms, a move that may have contributed to Russia’s painful loss there.

The official reason for the threat to lay down their arms, Rusich explained in a Telegram statement on August 25, was that one of the group’s top commanders and founding members, Yan Petrovsky, had been arrested in finland and he was facing extradition to Ukraine, and the Russian government wasn’t doing much about it.

Petrovsky, a dual Russian-Norwegian national, co-founded Rusich in 2014 to participate in the Russian occupation of Donbas and is believed to have once been a contractor for the Wagner Group. He faces several charges related to terrorism in Ukraine and risks 15 to 20 years in prison if he is extradited.

In a series of screen-captured messages by the research project. anti-fascist EuropeRusich members expressed their frustration at their treatment by the Russian authorities.

“If the country cannot protect its citizens, why should the citizens protect the country?” asked one.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the group appeared to be operating near Robotyne in western Zaporozhye Oblast, describing it as “a critical frontline area where the Russian military command probably cannot afford for any unit to rebel and refuse to carry out combat missions.

Shortly after ISW published its analysis, Robotyne fell to Ukraine.

There has been no official confirmation — neither from Rusich nor from the Russian Defense Ministry — that the group’s fighters stopped fighting.

According to Jeff Hawn, a non-resident fellow at the Washington, DC-based think tank New Lines Institute and an expert on Russian military affairs, it would have been a credible scenario.

“There is a very strong possibility” that the mercenaries laid down their arms, which would likely have contributed to Robotyne’s downfall, he said. Russia is so short of fighters that it cannot replace units that surrender, she said, adding that we probably won’t know “for years” what really happened.

Hawn said the reason for a riot would likely have less to do with the arrest of the group’s leader than with a loss of motivation among Russian mercenary fighters in general, coupled with Moscow’s growing inability to keep them in check.

“These guys are probably just looking for an excuse to get out,” he said. “They are realizing that Ukraine is not going to just break up and give up.”

The situation of paramilitary groups has been further complicated by wagnerthe attempted mutiny in June and death of the leader of the mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhinat the end of last month.

Under Prigozhin’s leadership, Hawn explained, Wagner had long served as an organizing tool for other Russian militia groups operating in Ukraine. Prigozhin had also established a culture of paying his mercenaries well and in dollars, a culture that spread to the other militias fighting in Ukraine.

“Although he had a reputation for being a tough guy, a bully, Prigozhin was known for taking good care of his people, paying them more and in hard currency.”

However, after the group’s failed mutiny – and subsequent attempts by Moscow to try to dissolve the group – working conditions for Prigozhin’s “militia collective” in Ukraine worsened.

“They probably get paid in rubles now, if they get paid at all,” Hawn said.

“They probably won’t get any supplies either, because the militia groups are on the low end of the totem pole when it comes to Russian logistics, which is already completely overloaded.”

Before his death, Prigozhin had long complained that the Russian army did not supply his mercenaries with enough ammunition, not even threatening to withdraw their troops from the front line in the hard-fought city of Bakhmut.

Prigozhin’s death – and that of his alleged right-hand man, Dmitry Utkin, in a plane crash on August 23 – also wiped out an entire shadow power structure built on connections and the ability to command “thugs and criminals.” ” who fought as mercenaries.

“There is no one like Prigozhin who currently has the will or the ability to challenge the government directly,” Hawn said. Now that the Wagner leader is out of the picture, he said, it will be even more difficult for Moscow to control the dozen or more militia groups still in Ukraine.

Even worse for Moscow, Hawn said, would be if they were willing to switch sides.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if some of these guys had their backs and suddenly joined the Free Russian Legionespecially if they are paid in dollars,” he said, referring to a group of pro-kyiv Russian fighters who have claimed to have carried out several attacks in Russia’s Belgorod region in recent months.

“I think the incident at Robotyne is significant and is a sign that there will be more to come.”