Asian markets fall; China’s economy grew 6.3%, below expectations

Indonesian trade surplus in June rose to $3.46 billion, well above the $1.35 billion forecast of economists polled by Reuters.

However, total trade fell overall, with the country’s exports in June down $20.61 billion, falling 21.18% year-on-year.

Imports in June were $17.150 million, 18.35% less than in June last year.

—Lim Hui Jie

China’s policymakers are unlikely to inject “massive stimulus” to revive a faltering economy, according to Arthur Kroeber, founding partner and head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research firm.

“I think the government has been pretty clear that they are not going to stimulate as much,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

“Basically what they’ve said is they want to do some fine adjustments, they’ll do some edge adjustments. But the big massive stimulus that we’ve gotten used to in China for the last 15 years every time you get a slowdown, I don’t think we’re going to have that again.”

Kroeber noted that the government realizes that “there is a structural problem in the real estate sector that needs to be resolved.”

“They’re not going to help that issue with lots and lots of stimulus to get people to buy houses they don’t really need,” he added.

— Sumathi Bala

China’s central bank maintained its medium-term unchanged loan rates to 2.65%, after the People’s Bank of China launched 103 billion yuan ($14.43 billion) in one-year medium-term loans at that rate.

This would fully meet the cash demands of financial institutions and maintain “reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system,” the central bank said.

The PBOC also carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 33 billion yuan through seven-day reverse repos, at an unchanged rate of 1.9%.

—Lim Hui Jie

China’s second-quarter gross domestic product grew 6.3% from a year earlier, below expectations compared with the 7.3% forecast from analysts polled by Reuters.

The GDP figure of 6.3% for the second quarter marked a growth rate of 0.8% compared to the first quarter, slower than the quarter-on-quarter rate of 2.2% recorded in the first three months of the year.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate among young people between the ages of 16 and 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record.

—Evelyn Cheng

Hong Kong markets are likely to remain closed throughout Monday, after the city observatory forecast that the typhoon warning for Typhoon Talim will remain in effect until 4pm Hong Kong time.

He Hong Kong Exchange usually cancels morning trading sessions if the typhoon signal is No. 8 or higher after 9 am, and all day trading sessions will be canceled if the signal No. 8 or higher remains in effect before noon.

—Lim Hui Jie

Singapore’s domestic non-oil exports fell 15.5% year-on-year in June, marking the ninth consecutive month that such exports have stayed in contraction territory.

This was a deeper drop than the 14.8% drop recorded in May, but slightly less than the 15.8% drop expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Enterprise Singapore, Singapore’s business development agency drawn up that The drop in domestic non-oil exports was due to weaker exports to Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea, although exports to Hong Kong and China increased.

—Lim Hui Jie

Shares of a venture capital fund focused on the high-growth technology sector could rise more than 180%, according to Berenberg.

The bank analyst said that even if the VC fund’s portfolio does not experience growth and is valued at a 20% discount to its peers, it would still imply a 54% advantage.

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—Ganesh Rao

UBS He named a number of US and global stocks that he says will outperform a major index in 2023, which he described as a year of “tipping points.”

The stock picks are its “highest conviction” names, with the list aiming to outperform the MSCI All Countries World Index, the Swiss bank said in a July 11 research note, adding that it “did not shy away from taking some positions contrary”. “

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—Lucy Handley

Among the Group of 20 nations, headline inflation appears to have peaked, according the International Monetary Fund. However, in most G20 countries, particularly in advanced economies, core inflation remains well above central bank targets.

“In the fight against inflation, there are some early signs that monetary policy is being transmitted to activity, with stricter bank lending standards in the euro area and the United States. That said, the authorities should avoid the ‘ ‘Premature Celebrations’: Lessons from past inflation bouts show that loosening policy too soon can undo progress on inflation,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva wrote in a note on Friday.

The IMF forecasts that global growth over the medium term will fall to around 3%, below the historical average of 3.8% between 2000 and 2019.

—Hakyung Kim

Stocks could continue to gain momentum in the coming week as traders turn their attention to earnings results after last week’s softer inflation news.

Major benchmarks are headed for a positive week on Friday after encouraging consumer and wholesale inflation in June cemented the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its rate-hike campaign. Traders see 95% certainty that the Federal Reserve will raise at the central bank’s July meeting, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool. They are 81% sure that the Fed will stand firm in September.

“I think the Fed is a little bit committed to another hike,” said Rob Williams of Sage Advisory. “But given this inflation data, I think it’s about one and done.”

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—Sarah Min

More than a third of the 32 stocks that hit new 52-week highs in the S&P 500 on Friday are also trading at all-time highs. Three of the 32 (JPM, V, CRM) are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Three of the all-time highs are homebuilders. And then there’s Nvidia, of course:

• Netflixtrading at the highest level since February 2022
• stock reservetrading at a record level since the 1999 IPO
• Dr Hortonall-time high since 1992 IPO
• lennarhistorical maximum since the beginning of the listing in 1971
• Pulte Grouptrading at its highest point since its IPO in 1972
• CBOE holdingsall-time high since 2010 IPO ‎
• intercontinental exchangehighest since April 2022
• JPMorgan (JPM), the highest since February 2022
• Moody’shighest since February 2022
• global S&Phighest since April 2022
• Visahighest since August 2021
• alignment technologyhighest since April 2022
• Cooper Enterpriseshighest since April 2022
• DexComhighest since December 2021
• IDEXX Laboratorieshighest since April 2022
• intuitive surgicalhighest since January 2022
• Sterilehighest since June 2022
• Copartall-time high since 1994 IPO
• Malehighest since February 2022
• rollins inc., highest since 1968 start of listing
• Adobehighest since February 2022
• ansyshighest since January 2022
• cadence design systemsof all time since its predecessor ECAD went public in 1987
• salesforce.comhighest since February 2022
• fortinetall-time high since 2009 IPO
• Gartnerhighest since November 2021
• service nowhighest since March 2022
• NVIDIAall-time high since 1999 IPO
• in semiconductorsall-time high since 2000 IPO
• Theradinehighest since April 2022
• sherwin williamshighest since June 2022
• equinixhighest since January 2022

Meanwhile, just five stocks fell to 52-week lows in the S&P 500 on Friday, none of them a record, though AT&T hit a 20-year low:

—Scott Schnipper, Christopher Hayes