The Australian military has carried out “top-secret war gaming exercises”, including scenarios such as China’s establishment of a military base in a South Pacific nation, while examining its defense posture, Australian media reported.
The exercises, described in a classified version of the Australian government’s defense strategy review, found the country’s military would have difficulty responding to certain plausible and specific scenarios, according to the Sydney Morning Herald and Channel 9 News.
Among the scenarios that were analyzed in detail by security experts were a war between the United States and China over Taiwan, and the establishment of a military base by Beijing in Australia’s neighboring Solomon Islands.
In this last scenario, the Navy of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would be within just 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) of the Australian mainland.
In a recent series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, four leading Australian defense expertss warned that a US-China war over Taiwan would be “probably the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945” as it would quickly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war.
The defense review found the Australian Defense Force “not entirely fit for purpose” and called for a major strategy and forces review to deal with “radically different” strategic circumstances and “the return of strategic competition of the major powers.
The Australian government published last week a declassified version of the Defense Strategic Review 2023 before announcing that it will host, for the first time, a Quad Leaders Summit on May 24 in Sydney.
The Quad, or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, comprises Australia, India, Japan and the United States. The last Quad Leaders Summit was held in Tokyo in May 2022.
Beijing has repeatedly accused the Quad countries of “building small cliques and stoking confrontation between blocs.”
Facing threats from China
Analysts say there has been a noticeable shift in Australia’s defense approach, mainly due to concerns about China’s increasing military power and ambitions.
The review said China’s military buildup is “the largest and most ambitious by any country since the end of World War II.”
The new strategy will shift the Australian military “from a balanced force to a focused one, concentrating on long-range power projection and ‘shock projection’ capabilities,” said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy ( ASPI). .
Those capabilities include “long-range strike for deterrence, particularly as it relates to the growing challenge from China’s military,” Davis told RFA.
The review noted that the Australian Navy needs “enhanced lethality” to deal with the PLA’s new capabilities.
“Of particular concern is Beijing’s rapid buildup of nuclear weapons capabilities, with a shift from around 350 nuclear warheads to 1,500 by 2035, and the establishment of the world’s largest navy, along with advanced precision strike capabilities of long range,” the Canberra said. said the based analyst.
“These capabilities and China’s actions have drastically reduced the warning time of a major proxy war,” he added.
As a result, the revision now emphasizes the rapid acquisition of military capabilities necessary for littoral operations in Australia’s northern and maritime spaces, as well as long-range strike capabilities.
The Australian Army’s range for firing projectile munitions will increase from 40 to 300 kilometers (25 to 186 miles), and with the acquisition of the Precision Strike Missile, to over 500 kilometers (311 miles).
Australia will develop indigenous manufacturing of long-range missiles, according to the Defense Ministry, with options to be provided in the second quarter of next year.
Beijing’s reaction
He Australian Government It said it “has accepted the review’s recommendation for an inaugural National Defense Strategy in 2024, to be updated every two years.”
The total to be spent on implementing the review is A$19 billion (US$12.7 billion) over four years, including the A$9 billion (US$6 billion) spent on the purchase of up to eight nuclear-powered submarines through a tripartite agreement with the US and the UK (AUKUS)
For starters, Australia announced Tuesday that it will offer service members bonuses of up to AUD$50,000 (US$33,500) at the end of their initial term of service if they commit to three more years in the military.
Beijing was quick to condemn the Australian government’s defense strategy review, with a spokesman saying China hopes “certain countries will not use China as an excuse for military buildup and refrain from exaggerating the ‘China threat’ narrative.” “.
“China follows a defensive policy of national defense and remains committed to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. We do not pose a challenge to any country, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Mao Ning saying.
Australia’s “perception of a Chinese threat is definitely not exaggerated,” ASPI’s Malcolm Davis said, adding that China has been building up its military with “virtually no transparency about its intentions.”
Edited by Mike Firn.
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