Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon’s green beauty contest

LONDON — The COP26 summit is about the future of the planet. But for the two leaders with hosting duties, it’s also about the future of the United Kingdom.

Delayed for a year by the pandemic, the crunch U.N. climate summit in November will take place in Scotland amid a bitter constitutional standoff between Boris Johnson’s U.K. government and the devolved administration led by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

The host city, Glasgow, was chosen by the U.K. government in part to demonstrate how Scotland is a valued part of the union (and how it benefits from that status.) But it’s also Sturgeon’s hometown, and the leader of the Scottish National Party won’t want to miss an opportunity to showcase Scotland’s green credentials. With Joe Biden and other world leaders likely to attend, she’ll also be looking to burnish her credentials as an international statesperson.

Johnson won’t want to be outshone at the summit, or “out-greened” by the woman most likely to break the union. Yet denying Sturgeon a platform would risk an ugly political row that could boost pro-independence claims Westminster sidelines Scottish voices.  

“Scotland is already showing it wants to use this opportunity to illustrate what it could do as an independent country,” said Tom Evans, COP26 researcher at the E3G climate think tank. “For climate, that competitive dynamic, which drives up ambition, is a good thing. It forces people to do better. [But] for COP, it could be a bit of a pain in the side of Whitehall if they’re seen to be outperformed by the [Scottish National Party] on climate issues.”

How green is my union?

Ever since Glasgow was announced as host city for COP26, the union debate has never been too far from view, with early disputes between Westminster and Holyrood over cost.

The one-year delay to the summit means COP26 now takes place after Scottish parliamentary elections due in May. With Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) riding high in the polls, that vote is expected to increase pressure for a second referendum on Scottish independence. Johnson is determined not to grant a second poll, but the SNP has indicated it could legislate for one in the Scottish Parliament anyway, daring the U.K. government to challenge it in the courts.

It’s not exactly an ideal backdrop for two governments meant to be collaborating on a potentially historic summit. Officials working at the coalface of preparation on both sides said relations are (currently) good. The last thing they need is for the union row to mar years of climate work.

But the growing threat of Scottish independence has prompted No. 10 to more actively push the benefits of the union — with reports suggesting the U.K. government will look to promote the U.K. as a global leader in green technology in a bid to shake off perceptions the three-century-old partnership between Scotland and the rest of Britain is conservative and backward-looking.

Already, the run-up to the summit has become a green beauty contest between the two governments. Shortly before the U.K. published its nationally-determined contribution (NDC) to global carbon cutting efforts in December, Scotland vowed to produce its own “indicative NDC.” Not being a signatory to the Paris climate agreement means Scotland can’t submit a formal NDC, but there’s an expectation among U.K. officials that Scotland will try to outstrip the U.K.’s 68 percent cut to greenhouse gas emissions.

Solving a problem like Nicola

The Scottish government expects to play “a full and active role” in the summit, a spokesperson said. Precisely what part Sturgeon herself will play is likely to be one of the biggest areas of contention. In 2019, Johnson told Conservative activists he didn’t want the Scottish first minister “anywhere near” the summit. In February last year, former COP26 president Claire O’Neill claimed that when she had suggested a role for Sturgeon, Johnson rejected the idea “heartily and saltily.”

Stephen Gethins, professor of practice at the University of St Andrew’s school of international relations and a former SNP MP and adviser, said the best way forward would be for Sturgeon or a Scottish government representative to be present on the U.K. government’s formal negotiating team.

“It strikes me that the U.K. isn’t playing the whole team if it excludes Scotland from the negotiation. Why wouldn’t you want to illustrate the positive role that all the devolved administrations have had on this?” Gethins said.

“With a leader who has world-level recognition — which Nicola increasingly does — Scotland and the Scottish government is going to have a very significant presence, and it just strikes me that the U.K. government could be in danger of shooting itself in the foot if it is trying to show the benefits of the union, [while] at the same it is underscoring its weaknesses by trying to exclude the Scottish government.”

But that may be an ask too far for the U.K. government, said Evans of E3G. The U.K. government is likely to argue that while domestic climate policy is devolved, international negotiations are a matter for them, although Gethins points out there are precedents for Scottish government officials being part of U.K. negotiating teams.

The Scottish government spokesperson said Sturgeon would be attending, but did not specifically call for her to have a place on the negotiating team.

“Scottish government ministers and officials have previously attended COP summits as part of the U.K. delegation and at the invitation of the [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change],” the spokesperson said. “We will be playing a full and active role at the summit, as we have done in previous years, showcasing Scotland’s world-leading approach to tackling the climate emergency and delivering a just transition to a net zero future.”

A U.K. Government spokesperson meanwhile said ministers were “committed to COP26 delivering for all of the U.K..”

“All parts of the U.K. have important roles to play in ensuring an ambitious, inclusive and successful summit,” they added.

Even without a formal role in the U.N. negotiating process, Sturgeon could still make headlines on the summit fringe — as her predecessor, Alex Salmond did in at COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, when he gave world leaders some special 42 per cent alcohol whisky to match Scotland’s then 42 percent emissions cut target — and vowed that those who “water down their target will get watered-down whisky.”

But Sturgeon is unlikely to settle for sideshow status. The first minister has a possible platform via her role as one of five co-chairs of the Under 2 Coalition, an alliance of state and regional governments committed to bolder action on climate change. Another co-chair is California Governor Gavin Newsom. The prospect of Sturgeon securing a photo opportunity with Newsom’s fellow Democrat, Joe Biden — the would-be leader of an independent Scotland alongside the president of the United States — is precisely the kind of scenario Downing Street wants to avoid.

“To what extent [the U.K. government] gives Nicola Sturgeon a stage at COP is probably something they would not decide until they really have to,” said Evans. “If [No. 10] can avoid doing so — I’m sure they’d prefer that.”

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