Borissov leads the pack into Bulgaria’s messy election

After weathering a summer of political turmoil and daily anti-corruption protests, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov has bounced back and his party is poised to win the most votes in Sunday’s general election.

But there’s no guarantee he’ll hang on to the premiership, as the country could well face a major political reshuffle amid messy coalition building.

Once a fireman and bodyguard, Borissov and his center-right GERB party have dominated Bulgarian politics for more than a decade. However, his popularity took a blow last year, when a wave of anti-government demonstrations engulfed the country for months. Thousands of Bulgarians took to the streets and demanded his resignation, blaming the government for failing to fight rampant corruption and enabling oligarchs to dictate the country’s agenda.

Borissov refused to step down even though Bulgaria plunged into the biggest political crisis since 2013. Instead, he axed several of his ministers, promised to introduce constitutional changes and lead the country out of the coronavirus pandemic.

Days before Sunday’s vote, however, that public outrage is largely forgotten. “It’s almost unbelievable that high-ranking graft has not been the centerpiece of this election campaign,” said Daniel Smilov, political analyst at the Centre for Liberal Strategies, a Sofia-based think tank.

Even though many strands of Bulgaria’s labyrinthine corruption cases are linked to abuse of EU funds, Borissov has held steady on the international stage as EU-level allies like German Chancellor Angela Merkel and his political grouping in Brussels, the European People’s Party, have turned a blind eye to Sofia’s graft and have not threatened to cut the country’s cash.

From a diplomatic perspective, one of the most keenly watched elements of the election will be whether there will be a continued role for small nationalist parties in any new coalition, as these have been the main agitators in Bulgaria’s effective veto on starting EU membership talks with North Macedonia.

An experienced politician, Borissov is using his long-running preference for social media campaigning to put the demonstrations behind him. He is increasingly swapping the once-coveted media spotlight for broadcasting live videos on Facebook, uninterrupted by journalistic questions. In recent months, Borissov has been tirelessly touring the country behind the wheel of his SUV. In line with his party’s election slogan “Work, Work, Work,” he could be seen inspecting construction sites and highways, visiting newly built kindergartens and playgrounds or chitchatting with workers and shaking hands with supporters in remote villages.

It seems like this strategy of folksy charm is paying off. Political observers predict a contested vote on April 4. A poll on Thursday by Alpha Research, a Sofia-based pollster, puts GERB first with 28.1 percent of votes, followed by its main competitor, the Socialist party, on 19.8 percent.

“GERB is likely to emerge as the leading political party but mainly thanks to the shortcomings of others,” said Smilov. He said that factors like a fragmented opposition, a Socialist party that pigeonholed itself with nationalistic and populist talk, and a media environment where journalists fail to ask Borissov tough questions work in the incumbent’s favor.

Part of GERB’s ability to survive last summer’s crisis lies in the fact that, like Bulgarian parties across the political spectrum, it has strong grassroots patronage networks. Borissov’s critics complain his party’s network is particularly strong and that many people are led to believe their jobs and prospects are tied to the continued rule of GERB.

Comedian in the coalition

This does not mean it’s all plain sailing for Borissov, however.

Even if GERB wins, it is unlikely to be able to form an outright majority. And the coalition building could then get ugly. His current coalition partner — an alliance of two small nationalist parties, running on separate tickets — might not gather enough support to enter the parliament.

“This might prove to be a Pyrrhic victory, if he fails to form a coalition government,” said Smilov.

While Borissov hunkered down against the demonstrations and completed his term, a number of political newcomers pose a challenge to GERB’s performance in these elections.

Ima Takuv Narod (There is Such a People), a new party, led by popular Bulgarian television chat-show host, singer and comedian Slavi Trifonov, aims to pick up support on anti-government sentiment.

While Trifonov does not have any previous political experience, the entertainer has been toying with politics for some time. In 2016, a member of his editorial team tore a picture of then-President Rosen Plevneliev on air. The same year, the showman initiated a national referendum on voting rights and funding of political parties. Trifonov also organized a reality-style casting for wannabe politicians and later formed his own party. Now, the comedian-turned-politician is likely to emerge as the third-largest player in the next parliament, turning him into this election’s wild card.

“Trifonov’s core support consists of people who are gravely disenchanted with the political establishment,” noted Boriana Dimitrova, a managing partner at Alpha Research. “By voting for him, they vote against the political elites.”

Two other parties are also hoping to capitalize on last year’s demonstrations.

Hristo Ivanov, a former justice minister and head of opposition party Yes, Bulgaria, is running on an anti-corruption ticket. Last July he made a surprise visit to a Black Sea beach, next to the villa of Ahmed Dogan, the founder and former leader of the country’s (often kingmaking) Turkish party.

Ivanov was briskly sent packing by several men who later turned out to be state security agents, even though access to Bulgarian beaches is open to the public and Dogan had no right to such high-level protection. Hristov’s tussle on the beach shone a light on the privileged treatment of behind-the-scenes political powerbrokers like Dogan and was the immediate flashpoint of the wave of anti-oligarch protests.

In the meantime, three of the self-proclaimed leaders of the protest joined forces with the party of Maya Manolova, a former member of the Socialist party and an ombudswoman. Their alliance, named “Rise up! Out With the Crooks!” after some of the popular protest slogans, is eyeing support from center-left voters.

The lack of a united opposition front, however, might further advance Borissov’s lead in the elections. “Borissov would seize the chance to play those opposition parties against one another,” Smilov said.

The corona wildcard

The vote comes at a particularly challenging time for Bulgaria, as the poorest EU member country is struggling to contain the third wave of the coronavirus. On Wednesday, Bulgaria recorded 5,176 new infections, the highest figure since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of people dying from the coronavirus has also been on the rise in recent weeks.

The government’s poor management of the pandemic — last fall the health care system was on the verge of collapse — and slow vaccination rollout might cost the ruling party dear. On the one hand, the third wave peak might discourage some Bulgarians to go to the polls, an outcome that works to Borissov’s advantage. But those displeased with the authorities’ pandemic response might cast their votes in support of an opposition party.

Against that backdrop, political observers and sociologists alike are bracing for election surprises. “These elections are quite unpredictable,” said Smilov. “Anything could happen on Sunday.”

The post-election talks and deciding the next Cabinet could be equally uncertain. “We are likely to see a very fragmented and disparate parliament, comprised of up to six or seven parties,” Dimitrova said. “We expect to see some new political players, whose policies remain a mystery at the moment.”

Smilov warns that this might further hurt Borissov’s chances at the negotiation table and force him to make major concessions with opposition parties in order to form a coalition government.

“We might have to opt for a technocratic government where no single party has the upper hand,” he said.