The Winter Conferences had been quiet this yr, primarily as a result of the business was ready for Shohei Ohtani to signal. That wait ended dramatically on Saturday, when Ohtani agreed to a 10-year, $700 million take care of the Dodgers that features huge deferrals. Now, who’s subsequent?
There ought to be quite a lot of free-agent exercise over the subsequent couple of weeks, so I made a decision to take inventory of the markets for some notable names. I checked out 17 of the prime remaining free brokers and made new predictions — primarily based on my conversations with decision-makers throughout the sport — for the place they’ll signal, what contracts they’ll obtain, and which groups supply the most effective matches.
(WAR stats are in response to Baseball Reference. MLB superior stats and percentiles are in response to Statcast.)
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP
Age: 25
2023 (Orix Buffaloes, Japan Pacific League): Stats
Group prediction: Yankees
Yamamoto is probably the most sought-after free agent remaining in the marketplace. When the offseason started, it was believed he would get a contract within the $200 million to $220 million vary, however now a number of front-office executives imagine he’ll get nearer to $300 million. Why such an enormous swing? It’s uncommon for a top-of-the-rotation starter to hit free company at such a younger age and it’s thought that the bidding battle amongst groups, together with many big-market golf equipment, will drive up the worth.
Most closely fits: Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Purple Sox, Cubs
Contract prediction: 9 years, $304 million
2. Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Age: 30
2023 (Rangers/Cardinals): 4.1 WAR
Group prediction: Rangers
Montgomery is an ideal match for groups such because the Yankees and Cardinals, however he’s already pitched for each and since they traded him isn’t inclined to return. He appeared so at house with the Rangers — taking part in for supervisor Bruce Bochy, working with pitching coach Mike Maddux, and with the ability to study from future Corridor of Fame hurlers like Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer — that it seems Texas could be his first alternative. Nonetheless, his agent, Scott Boras, tends to advocate his shoppers take probably the most years and {dollars} provided, and I’m undecided the Rangers will find yourself main the sphere in these classes. Montgomery could be a difference-maker for the Orioles or Reds, however I can’t see both membership stepping up financially to land him, so I’m predicting he returns to the Lone Star State, with the Giants as a sleeper group.
Most closely fits: Rangers, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Dodgers
Contract prediction: Six years, $167 million
3. Blake Snell, LHP
Age: 31
2023 (Padres): 6.0 WAR
Group prediction: Mets
Snell went 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA and 234 strikeouts over 32 begins. He didn’t permit a run in 5 of his final six begins and was one of many vibrant spots for the Padres in a disappointing season. Nonetheless, he’s solely pitched 130 innings or extra in two of his eight seasons, though he did win a Cy Younger Award each years (2018 with Tampa Bay and this yr with San Diego). Snell’s market has been quiet however most group executives imagine that if Yamamoto declines the Mets’ supply, they are going to pivot to Snell.
Most closely fits: Mets, Purple Sox, Giants, Dodgers
Contract prediction: Six years, $162 million
4. Cody Bellinger, CF
Age: 28
2023 (Cubs): 4.4 WAR
Group prediction: Cubs
Bellinger’s free-agent market was held up by the Ohtani sweepstakes, however now the bidding can start in earnest from groups. After dropping out on Ohtani, the Blue Jays might shortly pivot to signing Bellinger to play left subject. The Cubs would like to carry him again after a powerful season wherein he was named Nationwide League Comeback Participant of the 12 months. With all of the success Bellinger had final season with Chicago, a reunion makes quite a lot of sense; if I had been him, I’d re-sign with the Cubs, particularly if the contract provides are in the identical vary.
Most closely fits: Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Angels
Contract prediction: Seven years, $181 million
5. Matt Chapman, 3B
Age: 30
2023 (Blue Jays): 4.4 WAR
Group prediction: Blue Jays
The Blue Jays wish to re-sign Chapman and have made a number of aggressive proposals to attempt to attain an settlement. A 3-time Gold Glove Award winner, Chapman stays top-of-the-line defensive third basemen within the majors. He has 92 Defensive Runs Saved in his profession after tallying 12 DRS this yr. He hit 27 house runs in each 2021 and 2022 however this previous season had solely 17 homers with 54 RBIs. Nonetheless, he additionally hit 39 doubles and scored 66 runs over 140 video games. He ranked within the 98th percentile in common exit velocity and Barrel% whereas ending within the one centesimal percentile in hard-hit price. I’m predicting a return to Toronto, however he’d match properly within the Cubs’ and Giants’ lineups too.
Most closely fits: Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants
Contract prediction: Six years, $127 million
6. Josh Hader, LHP
Age: 29
2023 (Padres): 2.4 WAR
Group prediction: Rangers
Hader’s free-agent market has been unexpectedly quiet, and his subsequent group might be one which misses out on its beginning pitching targets. For instance, if the Rangers and/or Yankees don’t get one of many starters they’ve been pursuing, then signing Hader could be a wise pivot, as each groups might use an affect nearer. He additionally might find yourself on a non-contender that turns into the best bidder, such because the Angels. Hader stays one of many recreation’s most dominant closers after recording a 1.28 ERA and 33 saves with 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. I initially thought he had an opportunity to prime Edwin Díaz’s five-year, $102 million contract, however I’m reducing my projection and now predict that he beats Díaz by way of common annual wage however will get solely a three-year deal.
Most closely fits: Rangers, Yankees, Angels
Contract prediction: Three years, $63 million
7. Jung Hoo Lee, CF
Age: 25
2023 (Kiwoom Heroes, KBO): Stats
Group prediction: Giants
Lee was the participant most-cited by executives as ranked too low in my preliminary prime free brokers checklist, and the primary cause for that was I’d by no means seen him in particular person. Nonetheless, the business has clearly conveyed to me that he’s a prime center-field goal for each group with a necessity on the place. Main-league scouts are break up on his hit instrument: Some imagine he’ll hit proper out of the gate; others assume he’ll have extra of a studying curve and will take a yr or two to regulate to MLB pitching. The most effective a part of Lee’s hit instrument is his contact price and skill to attract walks. (He had extra walks than strikeouts over seven seasons within the KBO.) He’s a plus middle fielder with plus vary and a powerful arm. He will get good jumps on balls and takes good routes. He’s an above-average runner with lengthy strides however shouldn’t be a base-stealing menace. The Giants and Padres are the 2 groups with the largest wants in middle subject and each have been linked to Lee in latest days.
Most closely fits: Giants, Padres
Contract prediction: 5 years, $92.5 million
8. J.D. Martinez, DH
Age: 36
2023 (Dodgers): 1.9 WAR
Group prediction: Diamondbacks
Martinez needed to wait and see if the Dodgers landed Ohtani; in the event that they hadn’t, in all probability he’d be re-signing with them. Nonetheless, now it seems he may stay in the identical division however be a part of the NL champion Diamondbacks if the 2 sides can discover frequent floor on a deal. Martinez was top-of-the-line designated hitters within the league final season, with 33 house runs, 103 RBIs and a 134 OPS+. He has been to a few consecutive All-Star video games and continues to be a pacesetter and mentor within the clubhouse.
Most closely fits: Diamondbacks, Mariners, Angels
Contract prediction: Two years, $30 million
9. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF
Age: 30
2023 (Diamondbacks): 3.0 WAR
Group prediction: Diamondbacks
Gurriel slashed .261/.309/.463 final season with 35 doubles, 24 house runs and 82 RBIs. Defensively, he logged 14 Defensive Runs Saved and made eight outfield assists. Arizona would like to re-sign him. The Mariners are one other potential touchdown spot as they’re on the lookout for a left fielder to exchange Jarred Kelenic, whom they dealt to the Braves throughout the Winter Conferences.
Most closely fits: Diamondbacks, Mariners, Marlins
Contract prediction: Three years, $39 million
10. Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Age: 30
2023 (Phillies): 0.0 WAR
Group prediction: Giants
After lacking the 2023 season with a torn ACL, Hoskins’ finest play this offseason might be to signal a one-year pillow contract after which return on the free-agent market subsequent yr; that might give him an opportunity to show he’s wholesome, has improved defensively, and nonetheless has 25-30 house run energy. I believe he lands with the Cubs in the event that they don’t get Bellinger, or with the Giants in the event that they do.
Most closely fits: Giants, Cubs, Padres, Blue Jays
Contract prediction: One yr, $15 million
11. Justin Turner, 1B/3B/DH
Age: 39
2023 (Purple Sox): 2.1 WAR
Group prediction: Mariners
Turner had a pleasant yr, slashing .276/.345/.455 with 31 doubles, 23 house runs and 96 RBIs. Past the manufacturing, you’re additionally getting a pacesetter. The Mariners and Diamondbacks each want a DH kind bat; if Arizona indicators Martinez, I might see Turner touchdown in Seattle.
Most closely fits: Mariners, Diamondbacks
Contract prediction: One yr, $14 million
12. Michael Wacha, RHP
Age: 32
WAR (Padres): 2.4 WAR
Group prediction: Angels
Wacha went 14-4 this yr with a 3.22 ERA over 134 1/3 innings whereas permitting simply 113 hits and hanging out 124 batters. In 2022, he went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA, so he has been persistently strong the previous two years when wholesome. The Angels all the time want pitching and in the event that they signal him and he performs like he did final season, he’ll be a pleasant commerce chip on the deadline, as they attempt to construct up their farm system.
Most closely fits: Angels, Giants, Cubs
Contract prediction: Two years, $28 million
13. Lucas Giolito, RHP
Age: 29
2023 (Guardians/Angels/White Sox): 1.7 WAR
Group prediction: Dodgers
Giolito went 8-15 this season with a 4.88 ERA over 33 mixed begins (184 1/3 innings) for the White Sox, Angels and Guardians. He allowed a league-leading 41 house runs but had 10.0 strikeouts per 9 innings (but additionally 3.6 walks per 9). He must signal with a group with a powerful pitching coach and analytics workers that may deal with him as a reclamation challenge. With the precise pitching plan, Giolito might rediscover what he had throughout his finest years (2019-21). The Dodgers have had quite a lot of success with reclamation-project pitchers they usually want veteran starters for his or her depleted rotation, so a one-year deal is sensible.
Most closely fits: Dodgers, Mets, Purple Sox. Giants
Contract prediction: One yr, $15 million
14. Seth Lugo, RHP
Age: 34
2023 (Padres): 1.8 WAR
Group prediction: Royals
A number of groups are within the combine for Lugo and he may find yourself having to resolve whether or not to signal for much less cash with a contender such because the Braves or chase the most effective contract, which might finally come from the Royals. He went 8-7 this yr with a 3.57 ERA over 26 begins and 146 1/3 innings. It was the primary time Lugo was a full-time starter since 2017 and he relished the position. He has saved his season ERA between 3.50 and three.60 for 3 consecutive years, though his strikeouts per 9 innings have trended down — from 10.7 to 9.6 to eight.6 — over that span.
Most closely fits: Purple Sox, Royals, Braves
Contract prediction: Two years, $24 million
15. Teoscar Hernández, RF
Age: 31
2023 (Mariners): 2.1 WAR
Group prediction: Angels
The Angels have cash to spend after dropping Ohtani, they want energy, and Hernández matches a profile that aligns with normal supervisor Perry Minasian’s monitor document, together with his commerce for Hunter Renfroe in 2022. Hernández has hit 25 or extra house runs in 4 of the previous 5 years, together with 26 final season to go together with 29 doubles and 93 RBIs. He was once more among the many league leaders in strikeouts (211) and had a .305 on-base proportion. He’s a below-average defender in proper subject, ending with 1 DRS, three errors, and within the 61st percentile in outs above common. (He was within the 78th percentile in arm power and within the 82nd percentile in dash velocity.) Nonetheless, his constant energy from the precise facet is attractive.
Most closely fits: Angels, Mariners, Marlins, Padres, Guardians
Contract prediction: Two years, $28 million
16. Jorge Soler, OF/DH
Age: 31
2023 (Marlins): 1.8 WAR
Group prediction: Mariners
Soler hit 36 homers this yr and completed with a .341 on-base proportion and a 128 OPS+. He made his first All-Star group and, as anticipated, opted out of his contract after the season. The Mariners misplaced 59 house runs this offseason after buying and selling Eugenio Suárez to Arizona and Kelenic to Atlanta and dropping Hernández to free company. Soler could make up greater than half of these house runs by himself. Though the Mariners’ fundamental offseason purpose is so as to add contact hitters, a necessity Soler doesn’t tackle, they will’t ignore their depleted energy.
Most closely fits: Mariners, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Padres, Guardians
Contract prediction: Two years, $32 million
17. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF
Age: 34
2023 (Blue Jays): 0.7 WAR
Group prediction: Purple Sox
Merrifield made his third All-Star group this yr, slashing .272/.318/.382 with 27 doubles, 11 house runs and 26 stolen bases. His versatility — he can play each second base and the outfield — will increase his free-agent worth. In his profession, Merrifield has led the league in doubles, triples, sacrifice flies, and in hits twice and stolen bases thrice. To me, his finest group matches are the Purple Sox and Phillies. I believe he’d get extra taking part in time with Boston (at each second base and in left subject) and would have a better path to changing into a starter. Nonetheless, he would have a greater shot at a World Sequence championship with Philadelphia however in additional of a bench position.
Most closely fits: Purple Sox, Phillies
Contract prediction: Two years, $16 million
GO DEEPER
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GO DEEPER
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(Prime photograph of Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Eric Espada / Getty Pictures)
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