BRICS that could be bigger

The foreign ministers’ meeting will finalize the agenda for the 15th BRICS summit to be held in South Africa in August. Two agenda items are drawing attention for their potential for further geopolitical consolidation of the grouping: a plan to expand the BRICS membership and a common currency.

South Africa, which is in the presidency this year, will host a Friends of BRICS meeting on Friday, with 15 foreign ministers from Africa and the Global South.

Looking for multipolarity

It is said that up to 19 countries are in the queue to join the BRICS. Among the countries that have been mentioned frequently since last year: Argentina, Nicaragua, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela from Latin America; Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Senegal, Morocco from Africa; Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Türkiye, Syria, Iran from West Asia; Kazakhstan from Central Asia; Bangladesh and Afghanistan from South Asia; and Indonesia and Thailand from Southeast Asia.

It is unclear which countries might be admitted, but any expansion can be seen as strengthening the group’s weight as a mouthpiece for the developing world. By admitting a few key countries to the list, the BRICS could claim to represent more than half of the world’s population. Significantly, the list includes the big oil producers of Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria and Venezuela.

Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow of the Gateway House policy think tank and a former Indian diplomat, said the race to the BRICS is driven by two basic impulses: “First, there is considerable anti-American sentiment in the world, and all these countries are looking to a grouping where they can use that feeling to come together. Secondly, there is a lot of appetite for multipolarity, for a platform where the countries of the Global South can express their solidarity”.

China in the BRICS

The idea for BRICS arose between 2001 and 2003 from then-Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, Jim O’Neill, who projected that the four emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China would be the future economic powerhouses of the world, with South Africa being added further. late.

Although the economic performance of the BRICS has been mixed, the war in Ukraine – which has united the West on the one hand and strengthened the China-Russia partnership on the other – has turned it into a wannabe bloc that seems to be challenging the Western geopolitical vision.

China is driving the group’s expansion. After a meeting of BRICS officials in February, China’s Foreign Ministry said that “membership expansion has become part of the BRICS core agenda,” but tried to dispel the impression that this had the intent to create a block.

“Rather, it is intended to create a larger living space for the Global South,” the statement said, citing South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s view that BRICS was about allowing “the voices of the marginalized are really heard.”

Significantly, China does not use the word multipolarity, instead using “multilateralism” whenever it attacks “US hegemony.” The theme of BRICS 2023 is: “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for mutually accelerated growth, sustainable development and inclusive multilateralism.”

India in the BRICS

If India’s presence at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, where the Prime Minister Narendra Modi also participated in an informal Quad summit, was seen as a sign of New DelhiTilt towards the US, the importance it attaches to the “anti-Western” BRICS is an apparent contradiction, as are the several others it has negotiated over the past year.

Bhatia said India should not be seen as joining an anti-Western coalition. “Many countries are misunderstanding this. India is also part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and, despite the problems, has relations with Russia, with China. While China wants the BRICS to be an anti-Western group, the Indian view is that it is a “non-Western” group and should remain so,” he said.

Some analysts see the BRICS as an unlikely grouping, with hostiles like India and China likely never to find common ground, a situation that could become more pronounced as it adds members. One view on the expanding membership is that it could sideline India’s role in the group.

Common currency

The idea of ​​a common currency was proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS summit in Beijing last year. The idea met with a cautious reception, and the leaders decided to form a committee to study its feasibility.

The last year of war has seen economies around the world feel the impact of sanctions on Russia, the resulting rise in energy prices, combined with the rising value of the dollar. A dollar lockdown is a tempting proposition, but not all members believe it is an idea whose time has come.

South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor told Bloomberg earlier this year that the idea needed to be discussed “properly.” “I don’t think we should always assume that the idea will work, because the economy is very difficult and you have to take all countries into account, especially in a low-growth situation when you’re coming out of a crisis,” she said.

There are other complications, such as the creation of a common central bank of member countries that have different economic and political systems and are located on different continents.

One option is for members to trade with each other in their respective currencies, but as the example of India and Russia has shown, this is not easy either. Moscow wants dollar payments because it doesn’t import enough from India to use rupee payments. Negotiations are stalled.

Asked if India was on board with the idea of ​​a common currency, Jaishankar told a press conference in Mozambique in April: “Individual countries have their own position on this.”

China has attacked the “US dollar hegemony” as the source of all instability in the world, and is already trying to boost the yuan as a currency of trade in Central Asia. But there is no evidence that he is ready to dump the dollar just yet.