China and India lead Asia’s biggest hydropower crisis in decades

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Hydropower generation in Asia has plunged at the fastest pace in decades amid sharp declines in China and India, data shows, forcing energy regulators grappling with volatile demand electricity and erratic climate to rely more on fossil fuels.

The two countries, which account for about 3/4 of Asia’s power generation and most of its emissions, are also using renewables to a lesser extent to offset the hydropower shortfall and address growing electricity use.

The main Asian economies have faced power shortage in recent years due to extreme weather conditions, including intense heat and lower rainfall in large areas of northern China and Vietnam, as well as in eastern and northern India.

Increased use of polluting fuels such as coal to meet peak electricity demand and supply shortages underscore the challenges of reducing emissions. Asia’s hydropower output fell 17.9% over the seven months to July, data from energy think tank Ember showed, while fossil fuel-powered power rose 4.5%.

“Despite the strong growth of solar and wind power generation in Asia, the supply of fossil fuel thermal power plants has also increased this year as a result of a large decrease in hydropower generation,” said Carlos Torres Díaz , power and energy director at Rystad Energy. gas markets.

“Intense and prolonged heat waves across the region have led to low reservoir levels and the need for alternative energy sources to help meet demand,” he added.

China’s hydropower generation during the eight months ended in August declined at the steepest pace since at least 1989, falling 15.9%, an analysis of National Bureau of Statistics data showed.

In India, hydropower generation fell 6.2% during the eight months ending in August, the steepest drop since 2016. Its share of power production plummeted to 9.2%, the lowest in al least 19 years old, according to an analysis of government data.

China made up for the hydropower shortfall and higher energy demand mainly by increasing fossil fuel electricity generation by 6.1% in the eight months to August, while India increased fossil fuel-powered power production by 12 .4%, the data showed.

Renewable energy production grew 22% in China and 18% in India over the same period, the data showed, but from a much smaller base.

WIND AND SOLAR

Hydropower production also plunged in other major Asian economies, including India and Vietnam, as well as the Philippines and Malaysia, data from Ember and the International Energy Agency showed, mainly due to drier weather.

In Vietnam, hydropower’s share of power production fell more than 10 percentage points through July, while coal’s share grew by about the same amount, Ember data showed.

In some cases, the decline in hydroelectric production was a result of efforts to conserve water and alter supply patterns.

Lauri Myllyvirta, senior analyst at the Clean Air and Energy Research Center, said Chinese authorities pressured dam operators to maintain water levels as energy consumption increased due to heat waves.

Hydropower can be ramped up and down in a short time to cope with sudden fluctuations in demand, unlike other sources such as wind and solar. Myllyvirta said authorities used it more to balance the grid rather than maximize generation.

“This trend of rapidly increasing wind or solar power generation in China could push hydropower to play this critical regulatory role, rather than operating when there is water,” he added.

Asian power generation from wind and solar rose 21% in the seven months to July, Ember data showed, rising to 13.5% of total output from 11.5% a year earlier.

However, unlike hydropower, wind power is more difficult to forecast and control as it varies depending on local weather conditions. And the unavailability of solar energy at night compounds the deficiencies in countries like India.

India has reduced daytime power outages to almost zero this year despite record demand, mainly due to its buildup of renewables over the years. Still, it was forced to seek imports of more expensive natural gas in a bid to reduce pressure on your coal power fleet.

“The main utility of hydropower is to support wind and solar power. If hydropower becomes unreliable, India may have to think about alternatives, including adding more coal-fired power,” said Victor Vanya, director of the energy analysis firm EMA Solutions.

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