A series of recent visits by senior Chinese officials to Myanmar appears to be part of an attempt by Beijing to counter US influence in the nation, but rebel leaders have warned that supporting the junta is a miscalculation as there will be no stability as long as it remains. In power.
In the nearly 27 months since the military carried out a coup, China has been Myanmar’s staunchest ally.
While most Western nations shunned the junta chief, Chief General Min Aung Hlaing, following the seizure of power and a violent crackdown on his opponents, Beijing supported the general in Naypyidaw. While foreign investment has fled the embattled nation, Chinese investors have flocked there. And despite the international sanctions imposed on the regime, trade between the two neighbors continues unabated.
Despite the support, Chinese officials have made multiple visits to Myanmar since the start of the year in what some analysts say is an influence-peddling campaign by Beijing after US President Joe Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, to help the country’s democratic forces.
“China has increased its dealings with the military junta,” a China affairs expert told Radio Free Asia, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “It seems to me that China is concerned about the NDAA and the US Burma Act. That is why he has tried to maintain his influence by having more dealings with military leaders.”
Among the provisions of the NDAA are programs designed to support those fighting the best-equipped military for democracy in Myanmar, including the country’s shadow National Unity Government, the anti-junta paramilitary group People’s Defense Force and various ethnic armies, with technology and non-lethal assistance.
High profile hit list
In the latest high-profile visit, Peng Xiubin, director of the Communist Party of China’s International Liaison Department, traveled to Naypyidaw on April 16 and secretly met with former junta leader Than Shwe, who ruled Myanmar from 1992 to 2011, and Thein Sein, president of the country’s quasi-civilian government from 2011 to 2016.
Reports circulated that after Peng’s visit, Min Aung Hlaing met with the two former leaders to discuss the political situation in Myanmar.
Peng’s trip followed visits in February and March by Deng Xijun, China’s special envoy for Asian affairs, who met the junta chief on both occasions. Just two months earlier, the Chinese envoy convened a meeting with several ethnic northern Myanmar armies across the border in southwestern China’s Yunnan province.
Thein Tun Oo, executive director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, which is made up of former military officers, described the increase in meetings between the junta and Chinese officials as an attempt by Beijing to “balance American influence” in the region.
“The United States is no longer the only country influencing the world,” he said. “Among such changes in world politics, Myanmar and China, which share a very long border, need to cooperate more closely. The bottom line is that China-Myanmar relations will continue to develop based on this.”
RFA sent an email to the Chinese Embassy in Yangon to inquire about the frequency of visits by senior Chinese government officials to Naypyidaw in recent months and Beijing’s position on the political situation in Myanmar, but received no reply.
At the regular press conference of the Chinese government held in Beijing on March 17Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin called Myanmar a “good neighbor,” adding that Beijing is closely monitoring the situation there and hopes for a resolution through dialogue and consultation among all stakeholders. .
Interests linked to peace
China affairs expert Hla Kyaw Zaw told RFA that China will only be able to realize its interests in Myanmar if the country is at peace.
“China can only continue with its investments and projects…if Myanmar is at peace,” he said. “The reason why China wants Myanmar to be peaceful is for its own economic interests.”
China-backed megaprojects in Myanmar include the New Yangon City urban planning project, the Mee Lin Gyaing power project in Ayeyarwady region, the Letpadaung copper mine in Sagaing region, and the Kyauk Phyu deepwater port. and the special economic zone in Rakhine State.
According to ISP-Myanmar, an independent research group, there are 35 ongoing China-Myanmar economic corridor projects in Myanmar that include railways, highways, special economic zones, seaports, and urban planning projects.
Than Soe Naing, a political analyst, agreed that Beijing’s relations with the junta depend on promoting its strategic interests.
“I see China cooperating with the military junta just to continue to maintain, implement and expand its economic interests in Myanmar, such as the strategic Kyauk Phyu deep-water port project, which is a bid by Beijing to gain access to the Indian Ocean.” he said.
Than Soe Naing noted that China is trying to “split the (ethnic armies) in northern Myanmar from the anti-junta resistance groups… under the pretext of pacification.”
But he said China is actually working to exploit Myanmar’s internal conflict by trying to “get all the keys to the situation.”
No stability with the board
Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for the presidential office of the Government of National Unity, warned China that there will only be stability in Myanmar if the forces of democracy are successful in their fight against the junta. He said that only with stability in Myanmar will China achieve its economic goals in the country.
“As long as there is a junta, Myanmar will not be at peace,” he said. “The junta will only terrorize the country with more violence and will continue to torture the people. That is why the country will remain destabilized under (the junta).”
The lack of stability in Myanmar will also affect the development, security and economy of its neighbors, Kyaw Zaw added.
According to ISP-Myanmar, the value of foreign investment in Myanmar amounted to more than US$4 billion from February 2021 to April 2022, more than two-thirds of which was Chinese.
Translated by Myo Min Aung. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.
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