CNA Explains: The jet fuel crisis that didn’t happen – and why

Why didn’t airlines run out of fuel?

The jet fuel market’s relatively small size, while making it prone to disruption, also made it easier for airlines and refiners to make adjustments to avert a widespread crisis of grounded planes.

The surging of jet fuel prices – which doubled to over US$230 (S$295) a barrel in early April from their pre-war level of about US$100, before falling to around US$141 on May 29 – encouraged refineries to produce more aviation fuel, albeit at the expense of other refined oil products, Mr Blas wrote.

For example, US refiners raised jet fuel’s share of refinery output from 10.5 per cent before the war to 12.7 per cent, he said. That means they are producing about 250,000 more barrels of jet fuel a day compared to a year ago, he added.

European refineries have also ramped up jet fuel production to maximum capacity, while European Union regulators approved the use of Jet A aviation fuel, sourced from other parts of the world, as an alternative to the Jet A-1 fuel currently used in Europe. 

“Global refining has held up better than many expected. The US, Nigeria, India and Europe have all been able to increase jet fuel output – absorbing some of the supply gap left by Middle Eastern disruption,” said Mr Noel-Beswick.

“Notably, Asian refiners outside China have surprised to the upside – they secured more crude access than initially feared, keeping runs higher than the market anticipated.”

Lufthansa said that jet fuel shipments from North America and Africa are increasingly replacing the aviation fuel previously imported from the Middle East.

“Airports, airlines … can always work to find alternatives where there are some supply issues,” said aviation analyst Brendan Sobie.

The demand for jet fuel has also fallen, experts said.

“From the time the conflict started, the market saw immediate impact, taking jet fuel prices more than US$100 (a barrel) higher than crude oil,” said Sushant Gupta, research director at Asia Pacific Refining and Oils. 

“With the higher prices, we have seen jet fuel impacted over the past two to three months, and that has had an impact on the overall jet fuel balances.

“The overall jet fuel prices are now around US$45 (a barrel) above crude, so overall demand has corrected downwards and that has brought about the feeling that availability has improved,” he said.

One of the reasons for this is that airlines, such as Cebu Pacific, are cancelling or reducing flights on uneconomical routes.

Flight demand has also fallen, as passengers refuse to pay higher ticket prices or fuel surcharges to cover rising costs for airlines.

“One has to keep in mind all the cuts in flights due to the reduced passenger demand – higher fares due to high fuel inevitably impacts demand – also means less demand for fuel,” said Sobie, who is the founder of Singapore-based independent aviation consulting and analysis firm Sobie Aviation.

“At the moment, there is no concern about possible fuel shortages,” he added.