Cold winter and AI boom pushed US emissions increase in 2025

WASHINGTON: Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States rose last year, snapping a two-year streak of declines as cold winter temperatures drove demand for heating fuel and the AI boom led to a surge in power generation, a think tank said on Tuesday (Jan 13).

The 2.4 per cent increase in the world’s largest economy came as President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress enacted a series of policies hostile to climate action, though the authors of the Rhodium Group report said the full impact of those decisions will only be felt in the coming years.

Rich nations, including Europe’s largest economies Germany and France, are slowing the pace of planet-warming gas reductions even as global temperatures continue to soar, with 2025 set to be confirmed as the third-hottest year on record.

US emissions fell in 2024 by 0.5 per cent and in 2023 by 3.5 per cent, after the economy rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic and emissions rose in both 2021 and 2022, by 6.3 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively.

Building emissions rose 6.8 per cent, followed by the power sector where emissions increased by 3.8 per cent, the report found.

“Weather is bumpy year-to-year – we tend to see building emissions bump around like this due to higher fuel use for heating,” Rhodium Group analyst and the report’s co-author Michael Gaffney told AFP.

“But in the power sector this is about growing significant demand from data centres, cryptocurrency mining operations and other large load customers,” he added.

Compounding matters, high natural gas prices driven by heating demand and increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports allowed a comeback for coal, the “dirtiest” fossil fuel, which accounted for 13 per cent more electricity generation than in 2024.

Still, solar had a strong year, surging by 34 per cent and helping lift the grid share of zero-emitting power sources by one percentage point to a record-high 42 per cent – even as wind growth slowed and nuclear and hydropower output held steady.

In transport, the highest-emitting sector, emissions were nearly flat despite a fifth straight year of record road traffic, as the vehicle fleet became more efficient and consumers rushed to buy electric and hybrid vehicles before tax credits expired.