Commentary: Liberty, equality, misery? Why France is burning

2027 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LOOMS

This doesn’t excuse the weekend’s violence. French purchasing power is slowing down rather than screeching into reverse. 

Yet the combination of grievance politics, intergenerational unfairness and an inescapable sense of decline is what makes France feel so fragile despite its size and its still considerable strengths – such as a nuclear-powered electricity grid and first-class engineering talent.

It also makes compromise harder, with the new Yellow Vests bemoaning low wages and high taxes over the weekend alongside the nihilistic masked mobs spray-painting “ACAB”. 

With Macron a spent force, the question now is the 2027 presidential election. The sight of towns and cities on fire will doubtless create new supporters for far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Her extreme-left opponent Jean-Luc Melenchon is being seen as the instigator of the mayhem on the streets. 

In a vote dominated by cost-of-living and security fears, the far right holds several cards – including the Trumpian promise of putting hundreds of euros into people’s pockets through cutting payments to the European Union.

Still, six months is an age in politics. Le Pen’s plans involve billions in new spending and lack credibility, according to Bloomberg Economics. Voters are slowly starting to understand that rising state debt is a problem. Meanwhile, centre-left politician Raphael Glucksmann, who has ruled out an alliance with Melenchon, is enjoying a poll surge of his own.

But what’s missing in this crowded race, as elsewhere in Europe, is honesty on the reforms that are needed – both from politicians and the ageing electorates that are blocking inescapable change.