Israel believes that the Iran problem can only be resolved militarily, but will need to tread carefully so as not to rupture already strained relations with Mr Trump. While the latest bombing on Sunday came in apparent defiance of Mr Trump who asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran’s latest missile barrage, Israel’s bombing was calibrated.
On the other hand, Iran sees a contained conflagration with Israel as a way to ensure that the no-war-no-peace stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz does not become a fixture, break the stalemate in talks with the US while maintaining credibility by standing up for Hezbollah.
These form the potential time bomb ticking under Iran and Israel’s pullback from the brink.
THE HOUTHI WILD CARD?
One card Iran has up its sleeve is Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
It’s unclear whether the Houthis will abide by Iran’s deferral of attacks against Israel. The Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel on Monday. They have also declared that they would expand the hostilities from the Strait of Hormuz to the strategic Bab al-Mandab waterway that connects the Suez Canal to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean by blocking Israel-related shipping.
The Houthis regularly attacked ships in the Red Sea in what they described as an effort to force Israel to end its bombardment of the Palestinian enclave during the Gaza war. Impeding navigation through Bab al-Mandab, where some 10 per cent of global trade passes, would significantly increase the impact of the Iran war on the Gulf states, global energy markets and international trade.
It also risks dragging more countries, including Saudi Arabia, into the war. Saudi Arabia has enjoyed a de facto ceasefire with the Houthis for the past four years after the kingdom went to war against them in 2015. The ceasefire has ensured that the oil-producing kingdom is one of three Gulf states, alongside the United Arab Emirates and Oman, that can circumvent Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
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