Commentary: The bar US set for victory in Iran is higher than Khamenei’s death

The Iranian strikes came as satellite pictures showed an increase in the number of US warplanes, including refuelling tankers, stationed at the kingdom’s Prince Sultan Air Base. Saudi Arabia has told Iran it would not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against the Islamic Republic.

Saudi Arabia was quick to condemn the Iranian firing of missiles against targets in the vicinity of the capital Riyadh. For now, the Saudi and other Gulf states are likely to adopt a wait-and-see attitude rather than fuel the fire.

However, whether that holds, if Iran or the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen strike at international shipping in crucial Gulf waterways, remains unknown. Much of Asia’s trade and energy flows go through the Red Sea, where disruptions by Houthi rebels have persisted since late 2023.

The Gulf states are not the only regional nations worried about being dragged into a war they fervently tried to prevent. Türkiye, in particular, would also be concerned about Iranian strikes on US bases. 

Türkiye houses US nuclear weapons at Incirlik Air Base under a NATO nuclear weapons sharing agreement. The country has denied claims that its territory and airspace were used for US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Turkish fears are fuelled by last week’s creation of a coalition of five Iraq-based militant Iranian Kurdish groups, some of which have enjoyed US and/or Israeli support in the past. The coalition plans to exploit a potential power vacuum in Iran to establish Kurdish rule in the Kurdish-populated regions of the country.