Commentary: The quantum era crept up while you were watching AI

LIMITS OF TODAY’S MACHINES

Still, for all the excitement, the limits of today’s machines are just as real.

At the start of the year, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicted that we’re about 15 to 30 years away from quantum computers being very useful. He later said he was wrong, and by June declared the tech could be applied to “solve some interesting problems in the coming years”.

But he’s not alone in hedging. Amazon Web Service’s head of quantum hardware had a similar 15 to 30 year timeline in August. Even some of the most aggressive projections inside the industry put meaningful utility at least five years away. The spread in forecasts underscores how hard it remains to stabilise qubits and suppress error rates at scale.

Yet that uncertainty is precisely why business leaders should pay attention now.

One of the most immediate risks stems from one of quantum’s most famous algorithms. In theory, Shor’s algorithm could allow a sufficiently powerful quantum computer to break much of the commonly used encryption by banks and governments on today’s internet. New “post-quantum” cryptographic standards are being developed, but the question of existing systems becoming obsolete is increasingly a “when”, not an “if”.

A Bain survey this year found that 73 per cent of IT security professionals expect this to be a “material risk” within the next five years, and 32 per cent within the next three years. Yet only 9 per cent said they have a plan to address it.

This disconnect is the real story of quantum going into 2026. Timelines have compressed, money is pouring in and a global race is underway – but preparedness is lagging. Now is the time for companies and policymakers to build new quantum strategies and talent pipelines, beginning with a serious plan for post-quantum security. 

The hype is getting louder; the quiet story is how unprepared we are.