Commentary: Trump’s ‘little war’ with Iran just got a lot bigger

The Houthis – reportedly aided by IRGC guidance and Iranian promises of money and arms – have now taken that gun off the wall. Last week, they fired multiple missiles into Saudi Arabia, wounding more than 70 people, while the group’s land forces captured the port city of Mokha and, reportedly, several nearby islands.

This could prove a huge win, both for the Houthis and Tehran, providing the potential to place Houthi missile launchers and fast boats less than 50 miles from the narrows that create Bab el-Mandeb.

These territorial gains, if consolidated, could prove enough to give the Houthis the kind of permanent control over the strait that the Iranians are now demanding over Hormuz. Together, they would put two broadly Shia, Islamist and anti-Western forces in control of major flows of oil, liquified natural gas and fertilizers from the gulf.

According to Axios, Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Mohammed Bin Salman called Trump twice last week, asking him to order US air strikes on Houthi positions. The answer was no – Trump is understandably reluctant to open a second front in the war.

But it’s too late for that. Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb would join the two fronts into one, and the capture of Mokha has put that within reach.

At the weekend, drones fired from Iraq – likely by an Iran-backed militia – struck the East-West pipeline that transports Saudi oil to the Red Sea, forcing its closure and prompting a further spike in crude prices.

Trump may not recognise what a turning point this could be. Saudi Arabia will have a choice: Either fight the Houthis – which would require the involvement of the US or some other military power – or cut a deal with them. The latter would likely also require detente with Iran and mean significant changes to the balance of power in the gulf and on the Arabian Peninsula.