Commentary: US-Iran war has unleashed forces that will reshape the Gulf

Iran may be weakened, but it is also emboldened and will not accept a diminished role in the region. Over time, Tehran will tighten its grip on the Strait while rebuilding proxies, missiles and enrichment capability.

THE FUTURE OF US ROLE

This is why the Gulf has no substitute for the US.

The war has triggered intense debate about America’s role. In the Gulf, many still view the United States as a resident – not offshore – power, reflected in more than two dozen bases and installations across the region. But those bases also became targets, leading others to consider if deterrence failed and if Gulf capitals must reassess their reliance on Washington.

Yet the reality is that Gulf states will need deterrence capabilities and security guarantees which only the US can provide. Neither China nor Russia is willing or able to act as the region’s security balancer, and contributions from middle powers will be episodic (and limited) at best.

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye and Pakistan, known collectively as the Regional Four (R-4), have made an effort to create some form of security arrangement. This could be a useful vehicle for conflict management, but only the most optimistic will believe that anything resembling an alliance will come out of it.

Gulf leaders recognise this. Doubtless, they will diversify ties to widen strategic space, but they remain heavily reliant on the US. If anything, they will double down on defence cooperation by using their immense wealth and market access to keep Washington engaged.

Gulf Arab states have not been able to build a robust, collective security framework of their own. They have differing threat perceptions, lingering historical mistrust and a lack of robust institutional mechanisms.

Until those gaps close, only the United States combines the capabilities, networks and political relationships to deter aggression, underwrite maritime security, and manage escalation – however imperfectly – for the foreseeable future.