Commentary: What to watch for in the US midterm elections

WILL AGE MATTER?

But within this “it’s the economy, stupid” meta-narrative, there are more subtle trends. A third issue I’m watching is how voting breaks down along age lines. We know that young people are more progressive. One early 2026 study found 28 per cent of young adults were moving left in recent years, versus 15 per cent moving right. There is a narrative that says older and more conservative voters, who hold most of the country’s wealth, will inevitably be pitted against younger and more progressive ones, with each side duking it out for their share of a shrinking pie (social security versus education spending, for example).

Yet rising housing costs affect pensioners and young renters alike, as does healthcare inflation. Higher interest rates increase the price of mortgages and student debt. That might bring voters of different ages together around an affordability agenda. This would likely still favour Democrats, since Republican incumbents must justify why they are not to blame for the current inflation picture.

But it will be important to see which candidates win where, and why. Will midterm winners be populists arguing for higher taxes on the rich and corporations to improve the social safety net, or moderates from either party focused on faster housebuilding and targeted tax credits?

Likewise, will we see a bigger “horseshoe” effect of both the far left and far right winning on a message of economic populism? And will class concerns finally trump culture?

There, I’ll be watching whether a Muslim economic populist like Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed can win over voters wary of his identity with a Medicare for All platform, or whether a local Pennsylvania firefighter, Bob Brooks, can convince guys in the union hall to vote progressive again, even if they don’t like national party leadership. The answers to these questions will help decide whether Democrats can regain their hold over working people, which Republicans disrupted from 2016 onwards.