Commentary: Why this wave of protests is different for Iran

WHY THE DIFFERENT REACTION?

Why was the reaction to political dissent so different this time? The current protests are taking place in the shadow of Iran’s 12-day war with Israel last June. Iranian officials are still reeling from the conflict and operating on the assumption that it could resume at any time. 

That threat looms larger than domestic political unrest, because Israel’s battering of Hezbollah and the collapse of Bashar Al Assad’s regime in Syria have left Iran with little deterrence against foreign intervention.

Adding insult to injury, Iran is no longer able to prevent foreign actors from boosting popular discontent at home. During the June 2025 war, Iranians did rally to the flag, and the regime reacted by relaxing its enforcement of religious rules, most notably regarding hijabs.

But the current protests pose a dilemma: Cracking down too hard could undo the fragile understanding that the regime forged with the population after the war, while letting them grow could invite foreign intervention.

Iran’s worsening economy has also been a decisive factor. A combination of mismanagement, corruption, and crippling sanctions has caused rampant inflation and unemployment, steadily weakening the middle class and expanding the ranks of the struggling poor. 

The June war accelerated these trends. In the six months following it, the rial lost over 40 per cent of its value and inflation surged by as much as 60 per cent. With many assuming that the hobbling of Iran’s nuclear programme had reduced its leverage to negotiate sanctions relief, capital flight soon followed.