Commentary: Why Washington can no longer treat Ukraine and Iran as separate wars

One indication came when the two leaders met on Jul 28 in Washington. Mr Trump reiterated his commitment to licensing Ukraine to co-produce components for Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles and accelerate the cheaper PAC-3 ACE variant. This would ease pressure on the US-only supply chain that currently struggles to supply two simultaneous wars.

While the US president seemed to have second thoughts about the licensing deal on two days later, it is clearly not off the table.

US pressure on Kyiv to make concessions to Moscow has also receded, another sign that the Iran war has increased Kyiv’s room to manoeuvre. Taken together with Ukraine’s security cooperation agreements signed with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in March, these developments cement Ukraine’s role as a defence collaborator in Europe and in the Gulf. 

CHANGING CALCULATIONS, NOT TRAJECTORIES

Russia still looks like clearest net beneficiary of the Iran war.

The spike in oil and gas prices, driven by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has been worth an estimated 200 million barrels in extra revenue-equivalent for Russia, helped further by Washington’s loosening of sanctions against buyers of Russian oil like India. The diversion of Patriot interceptors away from Kyiv and towards the Middle East has weakened Ukrainian air defences and enabled Russia to intensify its missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.