Commentary: Will Cuba be the US’ next misadventure?

Cuba’s current condition owes much to the gross mismanagement of its rulers, but plenty also to decades of American sanctions, designed to force regime change. The danger of a Trump-led putsch is that if rampant capitalism follows, the Cuban people could quickly find themselves back where they left off.

Among 3 million exiles in Florida, to whom the GOP owes political favours, the most assertive are itching to fly back home and seize the economic levers with all the dollars at their command. “We have a lot of great Cuban-Americans,” Trump said on Apr 13, “all of whom just about voted for me, and they were treated very badly [by the Cuban regime].”

That last bit is true, but exile revenge, backed by American force, would be disastrous if unchecked. The popular mood could quickly turn against the Yanqui liberators if Trump and his people allow renewed economic exploitation.

WILL TRUMP CHOOSE A DIPLOMATIC PATH OR A FAST WIN?

Some Cuba watchers argue that the smartest US route would be to lift economic sanctions and seek a diplomatic path to expelling the regime. But that may not be easy. 

The corrupt army-run conglomerate GAESA controls large parts of the economy, just as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps owns the most profitable elements of Iran. It may be hard to dispossess GAESA without deploying American force.

Moreover, advocates of a diplomatic path to regime change are thinking about relatively long-term measures such as lifting sanctions in return for guarantees of a free election within, say, a year. Yet Cuba has been a one-party state for so long that there is no real underground opposition, only Florida’s exiles. 

And Trump – and even more so his party, fearful of disastrous November elections – is looking for a fast win, such as the Marine Corps might deliver.