Coronavirus death toll in England revised down by more than 5,000

The coronavirus death toll in England is to be revised down by more than 5,000 following concerns that almost one in 10 fatalities should not have been included in the official figure.

The government announced a new UK-wide standard for how it records the official toll on Wednesday after it came to light that thousands of people in England who may have recovered from the virus before they died were still counted in the headline number.

The changes means 5,377 deaths will no longer be included in the official total from Public Health England, resulting in a decrease from 46,706 to 41,329 – a reduction of 11.5%.

From now on the official government death toll will only include people who died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus, a change that brings England into line with other parts of the UK. Previously deaths in England were included for anyone who had died following a positive coronavirus test at any point.

The government’s analysis of the data found 96% of deaths occurred within 60 days or had Covid-19 on the death certificate. While 88% of deaths occurred within 28 days of a positive test.

Daily death toll announcements were suspended in mid-July after the health secretary, Matt Hancock, announced a review of the deaths included in the government’s figure.

At the time, Hancock claimed the Public Health England figures were overstating the Covid-19 death toll, pointing to a discrepancy between the Office for National Statistics figures, which are based on death certificates and include deaths in all settings, and the PHE data, which covers deaths in hospitals or those linked to a positive Covid test.

The official PHE figures are still a significant undercount of the true death toll, which is more accurately reflected in the ONS data. The new PHE figures, which cover the period to 12 August, report the death toll as 36,695 for England, while the ONS reported 49,183 that occurred by 31 July 2020 but were registered by 8 August.

Up to the end of June, the ONS figures were consistently higher than those released by PHE. That trend has reversed in recent weeks where the PHE figures have been higher than the ONS count except at the weekends, where reporting of deaths is lower but people are still just as likely to actually die on a Saturday or Sunday.

Keith Neal, an emeritus professor in the epidemiology of infectious diseases at the University of Nottingham, said the measures were sensible and brought England into line with the rest of the UK.

“The previous measure of always being a Covid-19 death even if recovered was unscientific. As Covid-19 deaths fall the number of recovered patients, particularly the very old and those with severe underlying conditions are now dying from these conditions and not Covid-19.

“These non Covid-19 deaths in survivors would become an ever increasing percentage of the England Covid-19 deaths being reported. It had become essentially useless for epidemiological monitoring.”