This year’s respiratory virus season will be a repeat of last year.
This year’s respiratory virus season will be a repeat of last year, with COVID-19RSV and influenza impact the health system at the same time, according to a model forecast published by the Centers for disease control and Prevention Thursday.
Based on their models, CDC scientists predict that there may be two possible scenarios this respiratory virus season (commonly known as “cold and flu season”):
Scenario A:
Moderate flu and RSV activity
Moderate COVID activity
Stepped peaks
Scenario B:
Severe flu and RSV activity
Moderate COVID activity
Overlapping peak
Historically, influenza and RSV were the two main viruses circulating during “cold and flu season.” However, due to the emergence of COVID, what would normally be an average respiratory season can now place significant strain on the healthcare system, according to the CDC.
Influenza activity was unusually low in the early years of the pandemic, according to agency data. Increases in RSV activity in parts of the Southeast may also indicate that the seasonal nature of the virus is returning, according to a CDC alert sent to health care providers earlier this month.
According to the CDC, fall and winter are a time when respiratory viruses tend to circulate more in the community. Last year’s so-called “tripledemic” left some hospitals overwhelmed by an influx of patients sick with COVID, RSV and the flu.
According to the agency, the precise nature of the severity or timing of the season cannot be predicted. Some seasons may be more severe than others depending on the strains of viruses circulating and immunity to the viruses.
For the first time in U.S. history, vaccines against all three major respiratory viruses (COVID, RSV, and flu) will be available to some people this fall. According to the CDC, higher levels of vaccination across the population will also help reduce the number of hospitalizations and the risk of hospital strain.