Cristobal – what to expect

VERO BEACH, Fla. — Tropical Depression Cristobal held onto its strength Thursday night as it continued to pummel Mexico and Central America with 35-mph winds and torrential rainfall.

As soon as Cristobal moves over land, a northward track is expected and residents along the Gulf Coast  may experience tropical-storm-force winds and dangerous storm surge this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

A tropical storm watch and storm surge watch may be issued later today for the northern Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

• Location: 80 miles south-southeast of Campeche, Mexico
• Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
• Movement: north-northeast at 7 mph
• Next advisory: 11 a.m.

At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located inland 80 miles south-southeast of Campeche, Mexico.

The depression was moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph. A turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today, and a general northward motion is forecast to continue through Sunday.

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On the forecast track, the center will move over the Yucatan peninsula today. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while the depression is located over land. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin once the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.

How strong could Cristobal get?

Landfall as a strong tropical storm in the U.S. is most likely, but there is a chance that Cristobal reaches hurricane strength as it spends time over warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, according to AccuWeather.

How quickly Cristobal gains strength over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday to Saturday may hold the key to intensity later on, meteorologists said.

If the storm rapidly organizes as it moves back over the warm water, then the risk of it becoming a hurricane prior to landfall will increase substantially.

A tropical storm has winds of 39 to 73 mph. A Category 1 hurricane has winds of 74-95 mph.

Where will Cristobal go?

Most projections put Cristobal’s U.S. landfall in Louisiana, but a few models show a landfall in Florida’s Panhandle. 

“We are forecasting Cristobal to make landfall over the central coast of Louisiana late Sunday or Sunday evening,” said Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather’s top hurricane expert.

The strongest winds, highest storm surge and heaviest rains could be well removed from the center of circulation.

Current projections put Cristobal strengthening to 60-mph winds within the next two to three days.

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Cristobal is forecast to remain over land for another 12 to 18 hours, and little change in strength is anticipated during that time.

Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, gradual strengthening still seems likely until Cristobal reaches the northern U.S. Gulf Coast, the Hurricane Center said.

What will be the impact on the U.S. from Cristobal?

Residents of the northern Gulf Coast may experience tropical-storm-force winds and dangerous storm surge this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Both the Hurricane Center and National Weather Service urged residents to not focus on the cone projection of where Cristobal will go, saying impacts will be felt outside of the cone, especially east of the center.

Already large, Cristobal may expand even more over the Gulf of Mexico, meaning residents along the Gulf Coast could feel its effects from its outer bands 36 to 48 hours ahead of the center making landfall, according to AccuWether meteorologists.

Those living from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle may feel tropical-storm-force winds, and residents from Louisiana to Florida’s Big Bend could see storm surge.

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A tropical storm watch and storm surge watch may be issued later today for the northern Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

A storm surge up to 6 feet above ground is possible near and just east of where the storm makes landfall, according to AccuWeather.

Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from east Texas to Florida this weekend, with some areas of flash flooding possible.

The strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed from the center of circulation, the Hurricane Center said.

Current projections put Cristobal strengthening to 60-mph winds over the next two to three days.

Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from east Texas to Florida this weekend, with some areas of flash flooding possible.

As the storm strengthens over the weekend, winds will increase throughout the Gulf of Mexico, but especially in shoreline areas from Louisiana east to the Florida Panhandle and along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, said AccuWeather meteorologists.

Heavy rainfall is possible late Saturday night through early Monday morning for those in the western Panhandle, especially closer to the coast, according the National Weather Service, Mobile/Pensacola.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible along coastal Alabama into the western Panhandle Sunday through Sunday night.

Coastal flooding, heavy rain and dangerous beach conditions cold begin as early as Saturday night for the tri-state area, according to the National Weather Service, Tallahassee.

Residents across coastal Alabama and into southeast Mississippi also could feel impact from Cristobal’s winds, the Weather Service said.

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