RISK OF ESCALATION
Dr Dorsey pointed out that there may also be a hardening of the lines on both sides of the war following the security chief’s death.
“You could see Israel, the United States, seeing this as a major body blow that sets the stage for trying to finish Iran off,” he said.
Already, Iran has retaliated for the assassination of its security chief, targeting Tel Aviv with missiles carrying cluster warheads, which are difficult to intercept.
Larijani’s death is also likely to lend more power to the more radical leaders and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, said Dr Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University Qatar.
“As an insider with deep connections within the Islamic Republic’s deep state and with impeccable revolutionary credentials, he would have been indispensable to any decision to end the current war,” Dr Kamrava told CNA.
“His death is likely to strengthen the hands of President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi on the one hand, and the more radical, less compromising commanders of the Revolutionary Guards on the other.”
Larijani would also have been central to any post-war political and diplomatic direction Iran would take, Dr Kamrava added.
“Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, never a rival but someone with a similar career trajectory, is now likely to find a freer hand in pursuing his political ambitions,” he said.
A former mayor of Tehran and Revolutionary Guard general, Ghalibaf was reelected parliamentary speaker in May last year. He is a conservative politician who was linked to student crackdowns in 1999 and 2003.
The fear is also that some of the “red lines” that are still in place can be crossed in the near future, said CCAS’ Amirah-Fernandez.
“I am thinking of large-scale attacks against the energy infrastructure in different countries in the Gulf region, not only in Iran, but maybe with Iran also attacking neighbouring countries’ energy installations,” he added.
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