Difficult 2026 ahead as Brits fear riots and recession

Riots and a recession are expected by a majority of Britons in 2026. New polling lays bare the pessimism across Sir Keir Starmer’s Britain as the country looks ahead to the next 12 months.

More than six out of 10 people (61%) polled by More in Common fear there will be violent riots and protests. Almost as many (60%) expect the UK to enter a recession. A majority (54%) also worry that a major cyber attack will disrupt critical UK infrastructure.

There is little optimism England will make it to the final of the World Cup, with half saying this is unlikely and only 34% expecting the team to play in the final contest of the competition.

Despite high-profile talks, a mere 22% say it is likely the war in Ukraine will end.

The polling also shows many Britons expect Labour to suffer further setbacks. Nearly half (48%) think it will no longer be the biggest party in the Welsh Parliament after the May elections. Labour has led the devolved government since devolution began in 1999.

There is deep pessimism about Labour improving the NHS, with 72% saying it is unlikely the number of people on waiting lists will fall. Only 21% say this is likely.

The country is split on whether Sir Keir will stay on as PM throughout the year, with 44% saying it is likely he will resign or be removed, and 43% saying this is unlikely.

Just 27% think it is likely that Kemi Badenoch will quit or be ousted as Conservative leader. This contrasts with polling from Ladbrokes putting Sir Keir and Mrs Badenoch both on 7/4 to be replaced in 2026.

Sir Keir can take some comfort that 55% of those polled say it is unlikely the Greens will overtake Labour in the polls.

But there is little expectation the PM will feel confident enough to call an early election. More than half think this is unlikely (52%), although just over a third of (34%) expect the country to go to the polls.

There is much more confidence the Trump era will continue. Only 15% say they think the US president will resign or be removed, with more than three-quarters (76%) considering this unlikely.

There is also concern about a potential economic shock, with 32% saying the Artificial Intelligence industry is a bubble that will cause a financial crash.

Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice said: “It’s no wonder that the public are filled with despair about Britain’s future. Decades of Conservative and Labour rule have not only broken Britain, but also crushed the hopes of millions of people.

“Only Reform UK has the guts to deliver the radical change needed to rebuild Britain and restore faith in politics once again.”

A Labour source said: “In 2026 the Labour Government is going to be firmly focused on improving the cost of living and making sure working people feel better off. We know there is still lots to do, but we are taking the fair choices that Reform and the Conservative would completely fail to.

“Next year, we’ll be building on the five million extra NHS appointments that we’ve delivered, rail fares are being frozen, the pensions triple lock has been protected, and we’re set to lift over half a million children out of poverty. We’re determined to continue the hard work of renewing Britain, just as we promised.”

But Conservative party chairman Kevin Hollinrake said: “It is hardly a surprise that the public are bracing themselves for a recession when Labour’s economic mismanagement and its Budget for Benefits Street are pushing Britain in the wrong direction.

“This polling paints a bleak picture of a country losing confidence under Labour – from fears of unrest and cyber insecurity to collapsing faith in the NHS and Labour’s grip on Wales. Even Labour’s own voters appear uncertain about Keir Starmer’s ability to last the year.

“Britain needs a leader with a backbone and a team with a plan focused on economic growth, law and order and delivering public services people can rely on. That is what the Conservatives will deliver.”

Economic experts at PWC UK expect the UK will grow by 1.2% in 2026, with inflation falling to 1.9%. They predict Britain will be the third-fastest-growing economy in the G7 next year, with AI boosting the country’s GDP by £2billion.