Dollar edges higher against peer currencies amid rate cut bets

NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 6 : The U.S. dollar edged higher against major peers on Tuesday, with the euro weighed down by softer inflation data, but moves were fairly muted with commodity and stock markets drawing most of the day’s attention.

The impact of the shock U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend was short-lived across most asset classes and particularly in currencies. 

Meanwhile, markets are also weighing diverging commentary by Federal Reserve officials on the path of monetary policy this year.

Fed interest rate changes will need to be “finely tuned” to incoming data given risks to both the Fed’s unemployment and inflation goals, Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin said on Tuesday. Barkin is ‌a non-voter on the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year.

Fed governor Stephen Miran, whose term ends at the ‌end of January, said Tuesday the U.S. central bank needs to cut interest rates aggressively this year to keep the economy moving forward.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari, a voter on the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, told CNBC on Monday he sees a risk that the jobless rate could “pop” higher.

“On the fundamental side, we are waiting for what will happen with US monetary policy, and as for now Venezuela is a non-factor,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive.

Fed funds futures are still pricing around an 80 per cent chance that interest rates will remain on hold at the U.S. ‍central bank’s next meeting on January 27 to 28, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The euro was last down 0.25 per cent at $1.16920, giving back early small gains after data showed inflation slowed more than expected in Germany and France in December.

That data sent European government bond yields down around 3 basis points, while Treasury yields were slightly higher on the day, a relative move that weighed on the common currency.

Traders expect the European Central Bank to keep rates steady ​for all of this year, and if inflation continues ‌to hold near its 2 per cent target, it will have little reason to rush to hike.

The pound dropped in sympathy as traders thought British inflation data could follow a similar pattern, and was last down 0.30 per cent at $1.34995, albeit after hitting a near four-month high ​against both the dollar and euro earlier in the day.

“A little over 48 hours after the U.S. military operation in Venezuela, there are few marks left in ⁠the currency market. Early Monday’s flight into dollar safety proved very ‌short-lived,” said Francesco Pesole, FX analyst at ING. 

“The good performance of equities yesterday, despite geopolitical risk, was, in our view, the primary driver of ​the unwinding of earlier dollar gains,” Pesole added.  

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was up 0.42 per cent to 0.795 and was up 0.15 per cent to 156.6 on the Japanese yen.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against major currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.19 per cent.

The index ‍dropped slightly on Monday after U.S. data showed manufacturing activity had contracted more than expected in December and fallen to a 14-month low.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar, ⁠which is sensitive to global investor sentiment and often moves in line with stocks, has been outperforming, and hit an over one-year high of $0.6739 on Tuesday. It was last up  0.18 per cent versus ​the greenback at $0.6725.

Against the Chinese yuan trading ‌offshore in Hong Kong, the U.S. dollar was flat at 6.981 yuan. The New Zealand  kiwi  weakened 0.14 per cent versus the greenback to $0.578.