Draghi ought to lead the European Council

Extra fascinating than the Fee, nonetheless, is who EU leaders will select to run the European Council — and what precisely that tells us about how severe Europe’s capitals are when it comes addressing the bloc’s priorities over the following 5 years.

After opting to run the EU’s overseas affairs Excessive Consultant portfolio for the final three mandates — first underneath the U.Okay.’s Cathy Ashton, then Italy’s Federica Mogherini and at present Spain’s Josep Borrell — the socialists are amongst these now eyeing the Council to ship them extra affect over EU affairs.

This shift is partially resulting from the truth that the Excessive Consultant’s affect has been progressively eroding over the previous few years — not solely as a result of EU capitals jealously guard their sovereignty over overseas affairs, however as a result of the Fee has turn out to be a way more vital geopolitical participant since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And with von der Leyen trying to make protection central to her subsequent mandate, the pattern is prone to proceed.

So, because the socialists are prone to come second within the European election, this can give them the precise to run the Council ought to they select. However their larger drawback is the dearth of candidates out there for the function.

On condition that the place entails chairing discussions and forging consensus amongst EU leaders, this particular person would must be a sitting or former head of state. For the socialists, the credible names at present within the combine are former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, former Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. And a straw ballot of well-informed senior EU officers carried out in Brussels final month named Costa as their front-runner.

This isn’t stunning. Not solely did Costa efficiently steer Portugal by the eurozone disaster, he additionally maintains good relations with all EU leaders — together with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. His two challenges, nonetheless, are the continuing corruption investigation that pressured him to resign (although he is likely to be cleared of wrongdoing by June) and nationwide elections that delivered a win for a center-right coalition in Portugal.