The 27 leaders will seek to persuade Israel not to trigger a full-blown Middle Eastern war by attacking Iran, will make a plea to avoid a greater conflagration in Lebanon, and some European countries will push for yet more sanctions on Iran.
According to a draft of the Council conclusions, they will call for “all parties to exercise utmost restraint and refrain from any action that may increase tensions in the region.” That will not have the Israelis or the Iranians quaking.
None of this carries weight with Netanyahu, who has shown little interest in ceasefire calls from either the EU or U.S. Ultimately, when it comes to the question of a direct attack on Iran, the decisive factor will be Washington, Israel’s main security guarantor, which has said it won’t support a direct assault on the Islamic Republic.
If any EU country has modest leverage it would be France, which joined the U.S. and U.K. in helping resist Iran’s barrage of 300 drones and missiles fired on Saturday. The advantage to Paris of being part of an anti-Iran coalition would be to try to hold back Israeli hawks, but there is no doubting that it’s the messaging from U.S. President Joe Biden that really matters.
The draft language on Lebanon is also loose: “The EU stands ready to work with all partners to avoid further escalation of tensions in the region, notably in Lebanon.” Israel has a long history of attacks into Lebanon to fight Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy, and there seems little prospect that it will row back because of European Council conclusions.
Similarly, EU moves toward more Iran sanctions would be symbolic, rather than game-changing. Decades of sanctions have done little to restrict the development of Iran’s highly successful ballistics program. Awash with petrodollars and cooperating with countries such as North Korea, Tehran has proved adept at beating Western embargoes.