Exit Poll 2024 Live Updates: BJP vs INDIA, what’s the public mood?

Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera on Saturday counter-attacked Home Minister Amit Shah over his remarks on the grand old party’s decision to boycott exit poll debates. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Khera wrote, “Dear Shri@AmitShah, here’s the deal: You celebrate on the 1st. We will celebrate on the 4th.”

Rajya Sabha MP and RJD leader Manoj Jha on Saturday said that no matter what the “sponsored” exit polls predict the INDIA alliance will be in a strong position to form the next government at the Centre.

“People are voting for their identity on social and economic issues. No matter what sponsored exit polls say today evening, when results will come on June 4, the INDIA alliance will be in a strong position to form the government,” Manoj Jha told ANI.

– Actual Results in 2019 — NDA won 353 seats and the UPA secured 91 seats.

– Accuracy Level in 2019 — Looking at the predicted vs actual numbers India Today-Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya were the most accurate, closest in range to the seats won. These were followed by the Times Now-VMR’s prediction.

– Actual Results in 2014 — The NDA won 336 seats, while the UPA got 66, and other parties secured 147. The BJP alone secured a majority of 282 seats.

– Accuracy Level in 2014 — Most exit polls correctly indicated a strong performance for the NDA.

As anticipation towards the exit polls builds, we take a look at which research agencies have been close to accuracy in their past exit poll predictions.

– India Today-Axis My India in 2019 predicted that the NDA would win 339 to 365 seats and UPA 77 to 108.

– India Today–Cicero in 2014 predicted 272 seats for the NDA, 115 seats for the UPA, and 156 seats for all other parties.

– News24-Today’s Chanakya in 2019 predicted that the NDA would bag an estimated 350 seats (±14) and UPA around 95 (±9).

– News 24-Today’s Chanakya in 2014 predicted 340 seats being won by the NDA, and by 70 seat wins for the UPA, while giving other parties 133 seats.

Any person who contravenes the provisions of the Section 126A shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with a fine or with both, as per the law.

To be in power at the Centre, a party, or coalition, has to win at least 272 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2024 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ledNational Democratic Alliance (NDA) is seeking a record third term. The ruling alliance is challenged by the Opposition parties led by the Congress under the banner of the INDIA bloc.

Soon after the last vote is polled on June 1, exit polls by different agencies will start releasing numbers predicting the anticipated winners and the margin of their victory.

The predictions are based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after the polling. While the idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment well before the actual results are announced, their accuracy has faced scrutiny in the past.

The last phase of voting for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 will occur on Saturday, June 1. After the voting ends at 6 p.m., various media houses will release their exit poll results, predicting the final results, which will be declared on June 4.

The Congress said on Friday that its leaders will not participate in debates related to Lok Sabha elections exit polls on June 4. In a post on X, Congress leader Pawan Khera said, “Voters have cast their votes and their verdict has been secured. The results will be out on 4th June. Prior to that, we do not see any reason to indulge in speculation and slugfest for TRP.”

The first exit poll conducted in India was conducted in 1957 when the Indian Institute of Public Opinion carried out a post-poll survey during the second Lok Sabha elections. The state-run broadcaster Doordarshan hired the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to conduct exit polls across the country in 1996. After this, conducting surveys took off, and many players pitched in, most of them in tie-ups with TV channels.

In the Lok Sabha Elections 2019, pollsters had predicted around 285 seats for the NDA. However, the BJP-led alliance won a landslide victory by winning 353 seats, with the BJP alone securing 303 seats. The Congress won 52 seats, and its UPA won 91 seats.

In the Lok Sabha Elections 2014, the NDA was estimated to win around 257-340 seats. However, the NDA won 336 seats.

An exit poll is a post-election survey predicting the anticipated winners and the margin of their victory. The predictions are based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after the polling. While the idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment well before the actual results are announced, their accuracy has faced scrutiny in the past.

Ideally, TV channels should begin releasing their projections by 6:30-7 pm on Saturday. These will also be live streamed on various social media platforms, including YouTube.

Many TV channels start publishing the exit polls with a different name or title even before the last phase of the election is over, perhaps, due to curiosity about which party could be the possible winner.

According to the regulations set by the Election Commission of India (ECI), exit polls are prohibited from being conducted during the voting process. However, they are permitted to be published 30 minutes after the last vote is cast.

In accordance with these rules, exit poll data cannot be released prior to 6:30 pm on June 1, which marks the conclusion of the last round of polling. These regulations are governed by Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951.

Despite being eagerly awaited and scrutinized, exit polls are not flawless. Several factors can contribute to inaccuracies in their predictions:

As the Lok Sabha polls are set to conclude tomorrow evening, various media organisations will declare the results of exit polls conducted after 6:30 pm on Saturday.

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav on Friday appealed to the party workers, office bearers and candidates to remain vigilant and “not get misled by BJP’s exit polls.”

In a post on X, the SP chief said, “Just as you have been cautious throughout the elections, similarly you have to stay outside the strong room and be alert till you get the certificate on the day of counting.”

“They will tell that BJP is winning around 300 seats, which is completely false. They do this to demoralise you so that you become disappointed, but you should not fall for their words and on the day of counting, you have to protect the strong room and be vigilant so that no kind of rigging can take place,” Akhilesh Yadav said in the post.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah also slammed Congress for boycotting exit polls and said that the opposition party always remains in a state of denial.

“During the whole election, they kept campaigning that they were going to get the majority but they knew the situation that in the coming exit polls, it would be their massive defeat so they can’t face the media. Therefore, they are boycotting the entire exit poll exercise. Exit polls have been happening for a long time but this time, because of the defeat, they don’t know how to explain and that’s why they are boycotting. Since Rahul Gandhi has taken in charge of Congress, they are in denial mode,” the Home Minister told ANI.

Bharatiya Janata Party president JP Nadda said that the move by the Congress is not “surprising” as the opposition party refrains from getting involved in such a process if they feel results will not go in their favour.

“Congress’s decision to not participate in Exit Polls, on the eve of Phase 7 polling, is an unequivocal confirmation that the Congress has conceded the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It is not surprising, since Congress usually opts out when it doesn’t expect results to go in its favour, but has no compunction showing up if it thinks it has even an outside chance. Their hypocrisy is not lost on anyone. Let no one in Phase 7 waste their vote on them. But what is more disconcerting is Congress’s antipathy towards the largest democratic process in the world, which saw the participation of over 960 million aspirations,” JP Nadda posted on X.

Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera stated that his party does not see any reason to indulge in “speculation and slugfest for TRP”.

“The Indian National Congress will not participate in the debates on ExitPolls. The purpose of any debate should be to inform the people. We will happily partake in debates from 4th June onwards,” Pawan Khera posted on X.

The fight for the Lok Sabha Election 2024 is between the the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and INDIA bloc, which is a coalition of over 25 opposition parties. 

The Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 will be delcared by the Election Commission of India on June 4. The exit polls, which are to be released today, are just predictions and not the actual result of the polls. Exit polls reveal who is likely to win the elections.

An exit poll is an opinion similar to pre-election surveys and polls. The only difference is exit polls are done after the voting for a particular election is concluded. Exit Polls make predictions about which political party is likely to win which state or union territories. It must be noted that exit polls are not same as the final and official results. The official Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 will be declared on June 4.

The exit poll results for the Lok Sabha Election 2024 will be released after 6:30 pm on Saturday, June 1.

Where to watch Exit Polls 2024? Follow this Mint Live blog to get the latest updates and exit polls shared by all the pollsters, including India Today-Axis My India, Chanakya, Times Now-ETG, C-Voter, and CSDS-Lokniti. You can also track exit poll results on different TV channels or X accounts.