Fall of Syrian government creates new hope, questions for path to peace in Middle East

WASHINGTON (TNND) — The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has created fresh uncertainties about the future of the Middle East during a year filled with conflict and fears of escalating violence that included two wars and an unprecedented large-scale missile strike from Iran targeting Israel.

President Bashar Assad was swept out of power earlier this week as rebel groups quickly gained territory and swept into Syria’s capital city of Damascus, forcing him to flee the country and bringing an end to his family’s 50-year rule. But what will come next in the aftermath is an open question with multiple competing visions and factions from within Syria and its neighboring countries in the delicate Middle East.

The rebels that overturned Assad’s government has ties to Al Qaeda and is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and United Nations. It is too soon to tell what the country’s governing coalition will look like moving forward, but Israeli leaders said they did not want to take their chances should an extremist group that considers it an enemy rise to power.

Israel has seized on the uncertainty to target Syrian military assets from fighter jets, drones, tanks, chemical weapons facilities and other defense systems. Hundreds of airstrikes have been launched targeting military targets as Israel tries to avoid letting them fall into hands of extremist groups as Syria figures out who will control the government in light of Assad being ousted.

“We have no intention to meddle in Syria’s internal affairs, but we certainly intend to do whatever is needed to guarantee our security,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday.

Israel has been hitting targets in Syria for months as part of its broader strategy to damage Hezbollah’s ability to target it and minimize Iran’s ability to resupply militant forces that frequently carry out attacks on Israeli troops and settlements. While analysts said the last few days have been more aggressive, they have also been highly targeted to diminish military abilities and avoided widespread damage to heavily populated areas.

“They had to take this chance to do something,”said Mark Chandler, former director of Defense Intelligence Agency’s Middle East and Africa Center and professor of practice at Coastal Carolina University. “But in doing so, I think they carefully avoided hitting targets related to (rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) in particular, or some of the other rebel factions that might have a leadership role. They have hit some targets that were a direct threat to some border crossing areas and even protected some UN forces in some of their strikes.”

The sudden removal of Assad from power has left officials in the Middle East and beyond, including in the U.S., scrambling to figure out what comes next during a highly delicate time in the Middle East with Israel’s war against Hamas raging, tensions with Iran running high and a cease-fire with Hezbollah trying to hang on just days into the truce.

The Biden administration and other U.S. allies have cheered the removal of Assad from power but have also had to jolt into action to make sure other extremist groups do not capitalize on the chaos during the forming of a new Syrian government. U.S. troops have been waging assaults against Islamic State camps in Syria to keep the group from surging in power.

A rebel leader affiliated with HTS, Mohammed al-Bashir, has come out as a caretaker prime minister until March 1. Various U.S. officials have said the group, originally an affiliate of Al Qaeda, claims it has moderated and will work with other religious groups jockeying for power in a new Syrian government but there are still concerns about emboldening extremist groups that could rise to rule the country.

“If you were to look at a at a color-coded map of Syria right now and during the height of the Civil War, it would look like a jigsaw puzzle with all the various factions that were both fighting against the Assad regime and also at the same time fighting themselves,” Chandler said. “The pieces can change shape and color from week to week, so how do you how do you get a ruling coalition?”

Also of contention is whether the group will allow Iran, which was closely allied with Assad and used Syria to transport weapons, ammunition and other supplies for its proxy forces, to reestablish its foothold that was at least temporarily cut off with the removal of the governing regime.

Netanyahu vowed the Israeli military would respond with force if the new government forges ties with Iran.

“If this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria or allow for the proliferation of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah or attack us, we will respond forcefully and exact a heavy price,” Netanyahu said this week.