Fear and violence wreck Macron’s EU election campaign

Though Macron’s government is pulling out all the stops to portray itself as being tough on crime, the Odoxa poll showed 70 percent of those surveyed judged the state’s action on security matters as being “insufficient.” EU election polling estimates the far-right National Rally (RN) will receive over 30 percent of the vote next month, with Macron’s Renaissance list stuck around 16 percent and at risk of being surpassed by the center-left, Socialist-party backed list of European Parliament candidates.

“The far-right has the most to gain when security matters are put at the heart of the political debate,” said Christian Mouhanna, a French sociologist whose research focuses on security.

In 2002, Mouhanna said, the RN’s campaign largely focused on crime and insecurity, which had marred the outgoing socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin’s campaign. Even positive economic results during Jospin’s time in office didn’t help much.

Two days before that vote — during a silence period when candidates are asked to suspend their campaigns and media cannot discuss electoral matters — a 72-year-old retiree was robbed and beaten at his home. The shocking nature of the incident and the intense coverage which followed made security a key theme with hours to go before the vote.

It was seen as linked to far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen’s second-place finish in that contest.

Images of violence have been widespread in France over the past year, starting with the clashes across the country last summer after a 17 year-old was fatally shot by a police officer. Last month, a 15 year-old was beaten to death in a Parisian suburb, allegedly by four young men aged 17 to 20. A few weeks later, a 22 year-old was killed, allegedly by two teenagers who had ambushed him after luring him in through a dating site. 

While the notion that France is turning into a more violent society is disputed by researchers, that won’t necessarily be enough to save Macron’s campaign. 

“Concern on security is highly tied to current events,” said Lestrohan, from pollsters Odoxa. “It’s always strong but spikes when an event draws a national emotion.”